The follow up question is probably, which Dodger? We know this staff has many quality arms! Let’s take a look at 25-year-old Dustin May, and his +5500 odds to win the 2023 National League Cy Young.
When Dustin May was called up to the big leagues in October of 2019, it was very clear why he was the 35th ranked prospect in all of Major League Baseball, and the Los Angeles Dodgers number one pitching prospect. He showed his heat with a 98+ mile per hour four-seam fastball, and added in a filthy sinker that peaked at 98 mph mimicking his fastball out of the hand but dipping in or away from hitters and making them look silly. May sported and still sports a cutter, curveball, and a change-up as well. It only took one night to see that the Dodgers had a special guy in Dustin May.
In 2020 (Shortened 60-Game Covid Season) May was given the ball on Opening Day, becoming the first Dodger rookie since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981 to take the hill for the first game of the season. May had a good outing going 4+ innings in what started a very solid 56 inning season. He pitched in 10 games with a 2.57 Earned Run Average and a 1.09 WHIP (Walks & hits per innings pitched), while striking out 44 batters and walking just 16. A strikeout/walk ratio of 2.8 which was a tad better than the league average. Just what you want to see from your top prospect. All signs pointed to May’s continued emergence as a top end of the rotation guy.
May came out blazing in 2021, ready to take his game to the next level. He opened the season’s first five games with 23 innings pitched, 35 strikeouts and allowed only 6 walks. A 5.8 strikeout/walk ratio. 3.0 higher than just above the league average ratio he had in 2020! He had 2.74 ERA and a WHIP of 0.96. He was looking like he was on his way to an All-Star season when good old Tommy-John came along and messed up his elbow. Seems to be something that pitchers can’t avoid now a days. May went on to miss the remainder of the 2021 season and the majority of the 2022 season.
In August of 2022 it was a tough start as the dreaded news of Starting Pitcher Walker Buehler (A Cy young candidate in multiple seasons, and a top 2 finish in 2021) needing season ending Tommy John surgery. The good news, May was ready to make his 2022 season debut. Would he be the up and coming all star of 2020 and early 2021? It was just nice to see him back out there at this point. May was able to pitch 30 innings in six games to end the 2022 regular season. He gave up a few runs and had a 4.50 ERA but the stuff was not lost by any means. A WHIP of 1.17 and 29 strikeouts to 14 walks. It was a small sample size to think he may be the same guy, but the signs were definitely still there.
Entering 2023 Dustin May’s Cy Young odds were around the +8500 number and as low as +10000 with some books. Hard to consider him a real favorite with just 30 innings in 2022. That has started to change quickly and May should only get better. The number has already dropped to +5500 after just two starts for May (Dipped to +7500 after one start). We need to hop on that before it is too late! In 2 starts this season, May has faced the Arizona Diamondbacks two times. He has thrown 13 innings with an ERA of 0.69 and a WHIP of 0.62. He has 9 strikeouts to go with 3 walks, and has only allowed one run on five total hits.
A two-game sample size in 2023, but what I have seen since May’s 2022 return is Dustin looking more and more like the 2021 pre tommy john guy. That guy can win the Cy Young for the National League. I mentioned with Buehler that this Dodger team is no stranger to the Cy Young conversation. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw who is still pitching at a high level and has won the award four different times (2011, 13’, 14’, 17’). Buehler (Out for 2023 season) has finished 2nd, and in the top 10 one other time as well in just five seasons with 115 games pitched. The Dodgers also have Julio Urias who finished 3rd in 2022, and 8th in 2021 (Opened 2023 at +2000, currently at +1000). He was one of our Cy Young names to watch out for heading into the year. I think it has become clear looking at recent Dodger history, coupled with Dustin May looking like the 2021 version, the top Dodger pitching prospect of his time needs to be included in this conversation. The number seems to be losing value with each pitch May throws, so get it while the getting is still good!
“Only bet what you can afford to lose”
-So Cal Ball Nerd
*Article written prior to May’s April 11th start* (5.1 IP, 2 Earned Runs, 4 Walks)
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