UNDERDOG TRENDS:

Mid-April Superflex

This series is for my sick-o’s who are already playing best ball for the 2023 season like me. You are my people. I am here for you. We will be reviewing ADP trends. Who is going too early Vs who is going too late? I’ll also discuss different strategies and ways to attack these drafts.

Three players going too early:

1. Tua Tagovailoa | ADP 17.5

He may have had three concussions last year. Two is a lot. All it takes is one blow to the head and the Dolphins will be rightfully forced to sit him for multiple weeks. They’re already under scrutiny for how they handled the situation last year.

This makes for a volatile situation in Miami. Tua has been taken inside the top 20 picks in every draft I’ve done in April. Top 15 in a couple of them.

Stacking him with Hill or Waddle is tempting, but I just don’t think we can count on Tua to play the full season. An early 2^nd rounder is a lot to pay for this risk profile.

2. Bijan Robinson | ADP 24.2

He’s being drafted ahead of Saquon Barkley (ADP 27), who had one of the few true bell-cow roles we saw in 2022. Bijan is also going ahead of Kenneth Walker, another guy with a very secure and hefty workload. Add to the list, Nick Chubb (ADP 35.1) who doesn’t have Kareem Hunt looming anymore.

I love Bijan Robinson. I want to see what team he’s on before I go this crazy. In Dynasty I’m expecting the cream to rise to the top, but the landing spot matters a lot for expectations in year one.

3. Trey Lance | ADP 64.8

As a 49ers fan, it pains me to call this one out. I understand the amazing rushing upside, and my heart wants Trey to win Kyle’s trust and run away with the starting job. That doesn’t seem like the most plausible outcome right now.

Sam Darnold may not be the biggest free agent signing, but he is a threat to Lance’s playing time. The 49ers are built to win now. They will not stand by idly if the NDSU grad struggles.

We’ll see, but taking Lance seems high here when you can take Brock Purdy almost two rounds later (ADP 82.2). Purdy is said to be the starter whenever he is ready to go.

Three players going too late:

1. Michael Pittman | ADP 81.7

His lack of success in 2022 had nothing to do with his effort or talent. The Colt’s entire organization underperformed last year. Exciting young coach Shane Steichen brings renewed hope, especially on the offensive side of the ball. He was the playcaller during the Eagles’ run to Super Bowl LVII.

The team let Parris Campbell walk. They’ve only added Isaiah McKenzie. He and Alec Pierce are the top competition for targets. Indy also seems to be targeting WR help in the later rounds of the draft, having visited with mostly day three prospects to this point. The tight end room is underwhelming outside of youngster Jelani Woods.

All these signs point to Pittman having a productive, bounce-back season. He’s the best playmaker on the team outside of Jonathan Taylor.

2. Mike Gesicki | ADP 187.3

The Patriots gave this previously underutilized tight end 4.5 million big ones and I don’t believe they did that to have him sit the bench. Bill Bellichick has been quoted as saying Gesicki is basically a big WR in the past. I think that screams he plans on using him that way too. On a team devoid of solid pass catchers, I think we need to pay more attention to this signing. You could easily swap him with Tyler Higbee who is going about 20 picks earlier.

3. Colt McCoy | ADP 237.2

Late in these best ball drafts you’re looking for players who can contribute, even if it’s for only a portion of the season. You almost assuredly have that in Cardinals’ QB Colt McCoy.

I doubt Kyler is ready for week one. He probably shouldn’t even be pushing to be out there that early in the season. He’s a mobile QB and he needs his legs to be effective. It’s a safe bet he misses a portion of the season.

Unlike a lot of quarterbacks being taken before him, McCoy isn’t just a backup that you’re rostering and hoping he’s going to play. How many games is yet to be determined, but he’s likely starting right out the gate.

Pairing him with a player like Brock Purdy who could miss that early portion of the year isn’t terrible. If you want to get really creative you could even pair him with Kyler Murray 😝

QB’s Go Early in Superflex:

One of the best parts of Underdog switching to Superflex is that we get a bit of a reprieve from everyone nailing the WR position so early. Instead of being forced to draft Garrett Wilson at the first-round turn like we were in March, he’s commonly available in the mid to late 3^rd in April. That’s just one example of many, but all of the WRs are getting pushed down in favor of QBs. On average, only Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are going in the first round. This is a drastic change from the common 7-8 we were seeing come off the board in earlier months.

The problem with quarterbacks being all the rage is you’re forced to take them early or you will miss out. To counter this, I’ve been trying to make sure I get an elite one early on. Once I secure an elite QB I start building my roster. You can commonly find great players to kickstart your build in the late second round like Jonathan Taylor or AJ Brown. If I cannot get an elite quarterback then I might go for two in the next tier and my build changes entirely. I’ll cover that scenario in a future issue.

Here’s a recent team I drafted that shows how the discussed strategy could work: