UNDERDOG TRENDS

Early May

One Quarterback drafts have returned to Underdog, after the completion of the NFL Draft. This means ADP and our strategic approach are both going to be much different. This series will help you get better at drafting best ball teams. We’re going to look at where some players are going and the value it presents. We’ll also discuss different strategies and ways to attack these drafts.

These players are going early:

Calvin Ridley | ADP 36.9

The kids have gone trick-or-treating twice since the last time we saw him. You get the point even if you don’t have children. It’s been almost two seasons since Ridley has played a down of football.

The Jaguars have four other viable pass catchers in this offense and they are not a pass-heavy team. Even if they go more pass-heavy in 2023, this is a risky pick at this spot.

Jahmyr Gibbs | ADP 41.2 🚀

His ADP has been rising fast since the first-round selection by the Lions last Thursday night. He went at pick 34 in two of my drafts this week.

Gibbs is certainly the far more explosive back and offers more long-term upside. However, it’s wise to assume that David Montgomery will get a large share of the work in the offense.

Monty is a seasoned veteran with the bigger body, and they gave him a sizeable contract. Why, then, are we drafting him so much later (ADP 70.5)? Even if it turns out to be a 50/50 split, their value is much closer than the herd is treating it.

These players are going late:

Treylon Burks | ADP 78.3

The Titans did not draft a wide receiver until the 7^th round. Robert Woods left town in free agency. Treylon is the unquestioned WR1 of this team. They run the ball a lot in Tennessee, but his main competition for targets is 2nd year TE Chigo Okonkwo.

If Burks can just stay healthy this season, there’s not much keeping him from giving us a good return on investment at this spot. Tim Kelly, the new OC of the Titans plans on getting the ball to his playmakers as often as possible. That sounds like good news for Burks.

James Conner | ADP 88.3

As of right now, James Conner only has Keaonte Ingram and Corey Clement to contend with for snaps. Ingram has some promising talent, but they’re not likely to trust him with a big role as he didn’t quite prove he was ready for one last year. Clement is a 28-year-old journeyman backup and that’s all they’ve added to the depth chart.

Conner was the RB10 in this format on a PPG basis last season. He should see heavy volume this season as long as he’s healthy. That volume will almost certainly justify his RB27 ADP. Don’t be afraid to take him here or up to a whole round sooner if no one else that’s available entices you.

Going about where they should:

Travis Etienne | ADP 33.8

He averaged 5ypc last year and is as explosive as any back in the league with the ball in his hands. He is a good receiver out of the backfield.

The reason he’s not being taken higher: Doug Pederson has said he prefers a rotation of backs and the team has supported that idea with their offseason moves.

They signed D’Ernest Johnson, and drafted Tank Bigsby. They’re not exactly world beaters, but at the least he will cede some early down work and redzone touches to those two. He only scored 5 touchdowns with a hefty red zone role as it was last season.

The team also still has Jamycal Hasty on the roster and Snoop Conner whom they like. I’m not saying don’t draft Etienne, just make sure that the likes of Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs are gone first. Take Etienne before Ridley or Gibbs all day.

OVERDOG STRATEGY

Something to be aware of is the two extra roster spots we were allotted in earlier months are gone. Underdog has cut their drafts back down to 18 rounds. Now that the NFL Draft is over and we have more information, they’re making it harder for us to build our teams. My suggestion is to plan ahead and target specific players in each round according to their ADP. Have about four realistic expectations for each round. Be flexible with your roster builds, depending on what pick you are awarded and how the draft falls.

Example of this:

Round 1 – Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, Austin Ekeler

Round 2 – Garrett Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Hurts

Round 3 – Derrick Henry, DK Metcalf, Justin Fields, Travis Etienne

Round 4 – etc.

Just pick the players that you believe are going to do well this season from each round and write them down. Draft your team around those players. This simple step alone will make your drafts better. You’ll be caught off guard less often. You can win without a plan, but you will win more often with one.

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