WRITTEN BY: GREG KELLOGG FSWA HOFER

GRAPHICS BY: JCMONEYDESIGN

[This Article was ORIGINALLY written back on November 22, 2022 and then edited to make it relevant for this year. All Credit goes to Greg]

I made my way back to Fantasy Football after a five-year, self-imposed hiatus from all things NFL. And what I found, astonished me. Seemingly no one, even analysts who had been around at the dawn of the hobby, had any knowledge of the Curse. The analyst I hold in the highest esteem,

@footballdiehard (Bob Harris), yea, the man who taught me “Don’t Chase Last Year’s Numbers” didn’t believe. I was amazed. So I started sharing the #CurseOf370 on Twitter and various and sundry podcasts.

Now, and trust me on this, I know how stupid it sounds. It took me three years to finally accept it. But studies on it go back almost 50 years (1978). The problem is that the curse only impacts about 90% of players who reach the threshold. I did do a podcast with a denier. And his calculations came out to between 50-60%. Still significant but not 90%. I never got the chance to verify his numbers but I do believe he did his work in good faith. Still choosing the start and stopping point of your study can greatly impact your results.

I believe that I was the only analyst recommending Jonathan Taylor not be taken in redraft leagues because of the curse. Several people were down on Najee Harris but I don’t believe any of them used the Curse in their reasoning. So I have been tracking the last three players to meet the 370 threshold. Two from 2021 (Taylor & Harris) and one from 2020 (Henry). To recap, the Curse does NOT predict injury. It simply predicts a significant drop in production. The reasons for the drop are varied (changed teams/circumstance, injury, holdout) and the effect is not universal. 90% is the number I have seen. I define significant as a drop of 1/3rd or more. My personal study went back to 2012 and found a range of 35-100% (average 65%) drops. Everyone who had 370 touches in my study degraded but one only lost 5%.

Derrick Henry’s total was not changed after this week’s game. An oversight on my part. His total touches through nine weeks is 197. His projection is correct. Which brings me to this week’s update. No one in tonight’s game is near the required pace so I am publishing early.

Average is calculated for a full season

Jonathan Taylor (1.01)
2021 Avg PPG: 21.94
2022 Avg PPG: 7.92 Difference: -63.9%

Derrick Henry (1.05) 2
020 Average PPG: 20.82
2021 Average PPG: 11.37 Difference: -45.4%
2022 Average PPG: 18.78 Difference: -9.8%

Najee Harris (1.08)
2021 Avg PPG: 17.69
2022 Avg PPG: 9.72 Difference: -45.1%

Tracking as of November 22, 2022

Touches after Wk 9

Henry 183+14=180 (372)
Barkley 163+28=191 (361)
Mixon 151+38=189 (357)
Pierce 148+20=168 (317)
Stevenson 129+35=164 (310)
Jacobs 138+25=163 (308)
Fournette 121+42=163 (308)
Chubb 149+10=159 (300)
McCaffrey 111+43=154 (291)
Cook 131+19=150 (283)

At the end of the 2022 season, two players finished with over 370 touches. Derrick Henry with 349 carries and 33 receptions for 382 touches. Josh Jacobs with 340 carries and 53 receptions for 393 touches. Henry is currently being drafted as the RB7 (ADP: 17). Jacobs is the RB8 (ADP: 18) according to Fantasy Pro’s PPR ADP chart.

I won’t be drafting either of them.