Running Back 18 – Tony Pollard DAL
Tony Pollard at 18 should have most of the fantasy football population gasp with shock, but let’s dive a little deeper into this ranking. Pollard finished as running back (RB) 7 last season with a high powered offense that scored 26.8 points per game. Pollard is now the lead back with Ezekiel Elliott in New England, and this should lead to more touches… and here is where it gets interesting. Pollard finished the season with 232 touches, and Elliott finished with 248. There is a notion that Pollard will somehow absorb ALL 248 touches now missing from the offense… that is ludicrous. That would be 480 touches, even absorbing 75% of those touches is out of the question. Pollard is a capable back, but the NFL is punishing on RBs, to expect him to play that many snaps without pain/injuries is unreasonable and unfair to Pollard.
Another aspect easily overlooked is T. Pollard’s 12 touchdowns. 12 is an amazing year, he tied sixth with E. Elliott and Josh Jacobs. The narrative for Austin Ekeler, Jamaal Williams, Derrick Henry, E. Elliott, and J. Jacobs is they will have regression, particularly in touchdowns… yet Pollard’s numbers are to go up. This seems like hopeful bias more than accurate projecting. The last narrative is “McCarthy wants to establish the run, and run more”. This is also a false notion. Dallas ran the ball on 47.30% of their offensive plays, that was ninth in the NFL last year. The idea that Head Coach Mike McCarthy is a run first coach is funny. He started as a quarterback coach, and has had some of the highest passing yards in NFL record from offenses he has coached. The loss of Dalton Shultz (a good blocking tight end), the signing of WR Brandin Cooks, and Dak vowing to improve on his 23 passing TDs/15 interceptions of last year, all indicate a DROP in production for Tony Pollard. His ADP is RB 6-9 in most formats, overpaying seems risky.

Linebacker 18 – Fred Warner SF
Fred Warner is an amazing linebacker (LB) that has not missed a game in his career… in fact he has started every game of his five year NFL career. He benefits from having playmakers all around him and thrived learning under DeMeco Ryans. Now he is without Ryans and looking to lead the 49ers back to a Superbowl. Warner finished as LB 23 last year, and although he has had 118 or more tackles in every season, he lacks the big play needed to boost IDP scores. This is partially because his teammates make the big plays, and Warner is asked to be in coverage on passing situations.
His coverage skills are great, particularly for a LB, this can hinder his stat production as the quarterback often passes elsewhere. He did have a career high 10 passes defended last season and could see around there again but averages only one sack, interception, and fumble recovery per season. His tackling volume gives him a high floor. and that is what makes him a solid IDP. His name recognition often causes his ADP to be higher than his ranking, but if you can get Warner at appropriate value, snag him and have a solid LB2.

Thank you for reading Mano y Mano. Check in tomorrow for RB & LB #17.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky – Iggy

*Stats come from FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, Sleeper, Statmuse, and NFL/Next Gen.
*Rankings are based on .5 PPR format and FF7s.