So, the business season of the NFL is beginning to heat up. If  you are like most fantasy football fans, you mostly zone out during this part of the year. But, for those of us who seemingly live and breathe fantasy, this is one of our favorite times of the year. Dynasty players know this as well. Paying attention to the right things during this time of the NFL year, can greatly increase your odds of success when the fantasy season rolls around. Free Agency is right around the corner, but today I want to spend a little time discussing the NFL Combine.

First, let me say that I love the Scouting Combine. Say what you want about how much or little it means to have guys in spandex doing workouts that, some say, are meaningless to the actual game of football. I enjoy the event immensely. That being said, I think there are many analysts out there that put too much weight on the Combine when it comes to prospect evaluation.

Over the weekend, we have been inundated with content about risers and fallers, stock up and stock down, and “breakout stars”. And while there may be very little of that, the Combine for me is much more of a measuring stick about how good my film and game study has been. There is no magic formula that says that guys who test well at the Combine are going to be great pro’s. 

Testing well is only a piece of the puzzle. Guys who test well, but those attributes don’t show up on the game film create question marks for me. I make note of them, and then go back and look at the film again, and try to find more film on them to see what I might have missed. The same holds true for guys who really flash on film, but then don’t test particularly well. As much as I would love to say I’m perfect, we all know that isn’t true, and I want to find out what I have missed.

So when you see a bunch of noise about a prospect who has been flying up the draft boards after his workout, take it with a grain of salt. All of these NFL teams have scouting departments that can see far more about players than we as outside analysts can. When a guy is “flying up the board”, it usually means that we, the casual fan, are starting to catch up to what the teams have seen for a while. The opposite is also true. 

Confirmation bias is something that we as analysts are very guilty of this time of year. When data comes out that supports our belief on players, we are going to take that and run with it. But, all too often, when there is data that contradicts our beliefs we do our best to ignore or discredit it. Be careful when you pick and choose your data sources.

So, what does the combine mean for us as fantasy fans? To put it simply, it helps many people get an idea of who these guys are. There are so many prospects every year, it is almost impossible for casual fans to know them all. Even some of the projected top guys are unknown by many.

It also helps us start identifying the guys who have testing that matches their film. Once this is done, it starts to become easier to slot guys into tiers. This, in turn, helps us project potential fits and landing spots for the NFL draft.

After watching all of the Scouting Combine, I will say this much. I believe this year is a much deeper class on the offensive side of the ball. Especially at the Wide Receiver, and Offensive Line positions. I feel like the Running Back position brings a lot of guys that will have an opportunity to compete for roles on teams, but lacks the star power of last year’s class. Quarterback is a position that always gets overvalued, and I think this year will be no exception. Defensively, I think we will see a few guys come in and have impact roles early, but I don’t think we can expect to have the star power of the past few classes.

At the Quarterback position, the one guy that will be the most polarizing amongst draftniks will be JJ McCarthy. He is a guy where the confirmation bias will really show through. I thought he had a solid workout, but not spectacular. The ball looked very good coming out of his hand, and I thought his footwork was solid. That is to be expected when you have been coached by Jim Harbaugh. That being said, he missed a few throws that he probably shouldn’t have, and he probably wishes he had them back. But, in his defense, he missed those throws the way you want them to be missed. For example, he missed an out route, but he missed it outside. In the NFL, often, if you miss an out route inside toward the middle of the field…it is being picked off and returned for a touchdown. He offers a lot of traits that I think NFL QB coaches will like to see, and I think he firmly lands in the first round of the NFL Draft.

At the Running Back position, a guy that I wanted to see more of was Ray Davis. Coming out of Kentucky, there is a little bit of pedigree at the position, and I wanted to see if his testing matched his production. I was not disappointed. He ran a perfectly acceptable 4.52 in the 40 yard dash, with a 1.56 10 yard split. He finished 11th at the position in both the vertical and broad jumps. This tells me that the burst I saw from him translates well. He ran the drills very well, and displayed fantastic footwork doing so. He also showed that he could be an adequate pass catcher out of the backfield. Davis will likely be a mid-round pick, but I think he has a chance to carve out a role on whatever team drafts him.

Looking at the Wide Receivers, I want to circle back to one of  the guys that I talked about in my previous article, Keon Coleman. Coleman was very productive at Florida State, but there were concerns about his ability to create separation. Coleman is another guy where people are likely to see what they want to see. He ran a sub-par 4.61 40 yard dash, but when he was clocked on the Gauntlet drill, he was the fastest WR at over 20mph. Last year Puca Nacua was the fastest receiver on the Gauntlet drill, and we all know how that turned out. As I mentioned before, I think Coleman needed to impress teams in the interview process, and from what I hear, he didn’t disappoint. I think he is a guy that will be a productive NFL receiver, and I have him projected to be a Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft.

For our IDP folks out there, the top two names for me were DB Quinyon Mitchell, and LB Dallas Turner. I think they are the top two names at their respective positions, and both had great days at the Combine. Turner ran a little faster than I expected, but watching the tape, you can see him flash that kind of speed. Mitchell answered every question I had…size, speed, strength, explosion…all tested very well and at or near the top for the position.

Free Agency is a week away, and once we start finding out where teams go during free agency, that is when I will start putting together my mock drafts. Doing a mock draft before teams address needs and salary cap concerns in free agency is, for me, a fool’s errand.

As always, feel free to reach to me on X(Twitter) @2fatguysff