Nine games to go towards the end of the Lakers’ regular season, and despite a few personnel changes, they are in the same position as last season: 41-32 (9th) and about 3 games back of the 6th seed. Last season, the Lakers missed their opportunity to secure that 6th spot, despite the improbable post-run. I’m taking a quick look at the teams in from of them, and I’d like to explore the Lakers’ chances of changing their fate.

As of today, the following teams are in from of LAL:

  • Sacramento: 42-30, 8th and owns the LAL-SAC tiebreaker
  • Phoenix: 43-30, 7th and LAL owns the PHX- LAL tiebreaker
  • Dallas: 43-29, 6th and owns the DAL-LAL tiebreaker
  • New Orleans: 44-28, 5th and LAL leads the NO-LAL series 2-1

So, to start, 9 games is a really small window with a team that’s about 80 percent healthy. It has its offensive identity with its starters, but seems to fall off when the 2nd unit gets involved. Yes, the games won while missing LeBron, AD or Russel have all shown that the Lakers can find a way to win. And yet, the ability to string together a streak longer than 2 games seems non-existent. Yet, that’s part of what LA needs to do in order to give themselves a shot at getting out of the play in. Then, there is an issue with the games left to play on LA’s schedule.

Five of the nine remaining games are against playoff-bound teams, and three of those are against division-leading/top-8 teams (Indy, Min, Cle). Out of those games, Minnesota is the only team to hand the Lakers a loss (2-1 season series). However, the Lakers are still balancing health with a focus to push for the playoffs. The Lakers most recent win against Indiana was a sloppy-but-needed victory, and looked nothing like their previous meetings – including the In-Season Tournament. There is a possibility of the Lakers dropping all 3 games to these teams before the start of the postseason. Catching teams is a hard thing to do when your progress is impeded by other teams.

I mentioned the teams in front previously, and after looking at current seeding, schedules of the aforementioned teams, and possible outlook of the last 9 games, here’s where I think the season will end for LA:

  • The Lakers will, like LeBron mentioned in this interview, prioritize health over making a huge run to end the season. That will seal the fate of the Lakers over the last 5 games.
  • The Lakers will finish 6-3 at best. If the Lakers find an opportunity to drop a game, given that game’s “seeding importance,” they will sit most, if not all their starters.
  • The Lakers will not be the 6th seed. I give this a 0% chance, given the records of a hot Dallas team and a better-than-average Pelicans team. Although, the Lakers play NO in the last game of the season, the record won’t be enough to leap frog NO, DAL and PHX. The Lakers would need to go 8-1 to do that.
  • The Lakers may get Sacramento in the play-in. The recent poor-performance of Malik Monk, the bad spots by Keegan Murray and the quiet-ish season that De’Aaron Fox is finishing with have all put Sac in an odd position to limp to the finish after killing it just last year. This could result in some sort of tiebreaker to cause 6th thru 8th seed teams to slot based on tiebreaker ownership. That would make: DAL 5th, NO 6th, PHX 7th, LAL 8th and SAC 9th with Sac playing LAL for the 8th seed in the play-in.

The game-to-game breakdowns may look better as the season ends, but as a betting man, I’d place my money on the Lakers getting into the play-in. As to how they’ll fare, well, stay tuned.

Make sure to stop by and see me. We’ll punch your Purp n Golden ticket on the train to The ‘Ship