Welcome back to the final part of our series of articles discussing how to win your fantasy football league! In this part we will be putting all of the parts together and giving some actual, practical advice on how the things we have discussed can work together, to give you an advantage over your leaguemates. I hope you’re ready! I will be discussing each of our offensive positions and giving you a guy that I believe is overvalued based off of the use of my tools, and a guy that I think offers a better value at the position that I think you might be better off drafting instead. Let’s get started!
Quarterback
As we utilize our tools (ADP, coaching changes, and personnel changes) one guy that I have been fading at his current ADP of 32.8 on Sleeper, is Jalen Hurts. Last year Jalen Hurts was carried by his 15 Rushing TD’s, most of which came on designed runs. He threw for only 23 TD’s, and has yet to throw for 4000 yards in his NFL career. Last year also saw him throw for a career high 15 INT’s. Cue the offseason changes. First, we have a brand new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Then we have the retirement of future HOF Center, Jason Kelce. Finally, we have the addition of Saquon Barkley at RB. These are three big changes that are sure to impact the Eagles passing, and rushing, offense. Kellen Moore runs a very different offensive system than anything Hurts has run before. It is a precision passing game that does not rely on designed QB runs. For everything that he has done, Hurts has yet to show me that he is capable of being the precision passer this offense is going to require. The loss of Kelce means that we are unlikely to see the same version of the tush push that we have seen in the past. And finally, the addition of Saquon Barkley means that we are unlikely to see as many goal line rushing attempts for Hurts. His contract almost guarantees that. You cannot afford to let your $50+ million QB continue to get beat up in piles. For all of these reasons, I am out on Hurts at his current ADP of QB2.
A QB that I would be much more interested in at his current ADP of 71.1, is Kyler Murray. Kyler is now a full year removed from his injury, and we saw him at the end of last year prove that he is still a capable QB in the NFL. Our tools tell us that he hasn’t had any major coaching changes from last year, but he has received some help when it comes to personnel changes. The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft, and Zay Jones in free agency give him a very good set of receiving options. Kyler also continues to provide elite rushing upside. The difference between Kyler and Hurts, for me, is that most of Kyler’s rushing production does not come from designed runs. Kyler finds his production on extending plays and scrambling when the play breaks down. Kyler is currently being drafted as the QB8, and I think he could actually outproduce Hurts this year. I am absolutely in on Kyler at this price.
Running Back
Running back is the position in the NFL that always has the most volatility from year to year, and this year was no exception. For me it would be easy to use CMC as my example here because I do not think that he repeats as RB1, but I am not going to. The player that I identified as my overvalued player at the position is De’von Achane. His current Sleeper ADP is 22.3, and he is being drafted as the RB9. Look, I know…the kid is electric! But, he only played in 11 games last year (and only had 2 touches in two of them). The bulk of his fantasy production really came from only five games. This is a best ball type of player for me. He is too boom or bust. While he had 20+ fantasy points in five games, he also gave you single digit fantasy points in four games. This is not the type of production I am looking for out of my second round pick and presumed RB1. Couple that with the fact that the Dolphins added one of my favorite RB in the draft, and I am out on Achane at his current price.
A guy that I would target instead is James Cook. His current ADP is 43.2 and he is being drafted as the RB13. There were some significant offseason changes in the Bills. First they lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and replaced them with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Second, they promoted Joe Brady to full time offensive coordinator. When Brady took over as OC last offseason, James Cook thrived. In the final 7 weeks of the season Cook was the overall RB11. With the loss of those significant weapons on the outside, it is probable that James Cook will see an uptick in his usage. While he may never be a huge red zone rushing guy, which does limit his TD upside, he provides a very high level of receiving upside which will help carry in points per reception leagues. I think he is undervalued at his current price and think he will give you a RB1 return on a RB2 price tag.
Wide Receiver
There are so many receiver options in the NFL and fantasy landscape. There are a lot of guys that my projections show as overvalued and undervalued. But for the purposes of this article the one receiver that I have identified is Nico Collins at his ADP of 28.1 and positional rank of WR14. So, while he is not being drafted as a WR1, he is right on the cusp, and this is still an early third round investment in the position. The reason that I believe that Nico is being overvalued is based simply on personnel. The bulk of Nico’s fantasy production last year came while Tank Dell was out with injury. Couple that with the fact that the Texans acquired both Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in the offseason, and I think his opportunity is limited. The addition of Diggs means there will be fewer WR targets to go around, and the addition of Joe Mixon gives the Texans a very good receiving option out of the backfield. If everyone stays healthy, this Texans offense could be prolific, but it will also be messy for fantasy…and I don’t like messy situations.
Instead of Collins, a guy that I am targeting instead is DK Metcalf. His current Sleeper ADP is 41.9, and he is being drafted as the WR22. This is a full round later than Collins, and I really like Metcalf’s situation much more. This offseason the Seahawks coaching staff underwent a complete overhaul, and they hired a new Offensive Coordinator that has a much different philosophy than the previous regime. Ryan Grubb was previously the OC at the University of Washington, and while there he ran a very high tempo pass heavy offense. In the past the Seahawks have been one of the most run-first teams in the NFL. I expect that to change immensely this year. I think the Seahawks may go from a team that runs one of the fewest plays per game in the NFL, to a team that runs the most offensive plays in the NFL. This is good news for all of their receivers, but I expect Metcalf to be the biggest beneficiary. With a fourth round price tag, and WR2 expectation, DK is a guy that I expect to vastly outproduce these expectations, and is one of the most undervalued players on my board.
Tight End
This one is easy for me, and I think it should be for you too. I am absolutely taking the low hanging fruit here and labeling Travis Kelce as my overvalued player at the position. His current ADP is 26.3, and he is being drafted as the TE2. Much of my projection here is based off age and personnel changes. Father Time remains undefeated, and while Kelce may easily provide a few TE1 weeks, I expect the Chiefs to limit his usage during the regular season in an effort to keep him fresh and healthy for their Super Bowl run. I think they can afford to do this because of the additions they made to WR room this offseason. They added Hollywood Brown in free agency, and drafted the speedster Xavier Worthy. This gives the Chiefs some weaponry in the WR room that they have not had since the departure of Tyreek Hill. While Kelce was somewhat productive last year, he did give single digit fantasy points throughout your fantasy playoffs last year, and may have helped you get there…but then laid an egg and may have been the reason you did not win last year. The fact that he is another year older, and had a very unique offseason this year, and I am out on him at his current price.
The guy that I am targeting instead is George Kittle. His current ADP is 62.3 and he is being drafted as the TE7. Kittle has been incredibly productive in each of the past 2 years, and I expect that trend to continue. The fact that I can draft Kittle almost 40 picks later than Kelce, and still get the same expected production is a no-brainer to me. I have Kittle projected as a top 5 TE, and he could give you overall TE1 upside. He is in the same offense that he has been and is a favorite target of his QB. For these reasons, I am looking to draft Kittle in as many drafts as possible.
There you have it. Utilizing the tools that I have given to identify four players who I believe are overvalued, and giving you four undervalued options that I think are great targets for you in drafts. While I have provided these as examples, I encourage you to use the tools for yourself and make your own valuations to identify the players that you feel are overvalued and undervalued for yourself. I have provided the tools, now you just need to start using them. It won’t necessarily be easy for your at first, but with practice…you will be winning your fantasy league!
As we get close to draft season, you will always be able to find me on X(Twitter) @2fatguysff but I will also be active over at www.thesportsaffiliation.com and on our discord at
Come check us out, and I will be available for assistance!
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