We broke down the league for this season. It is apparent that the Southwest division has a complete uphill battle, and it’s going to take a lot of will and firepower to break into the upper echelon of the West. Dallas is currently the only team on paper capable of doing that. The Mavs are looking to not only to repeat their run from last season – they’re trying to improve on it. However, the rest of the division does have the capability and capacity to mix it up and disrupt the status quo in the Southwest. How do we think teams fare? Check out our thoughts below:

Southwest Division Winner – Dallas

  • Dallas (55 – 27):
    • As winners of the Southwest, the Mavericks look to breathe a sigh of relief that their gamble on Klay Thompson panned out. Not only should they thrive off of Klay’s jumper, they should be better readied to protect the backcourt and Luka’s legacy as well.
    • One of the things that stood out against Dallas was their depreciation in paint defense. While we’re excited about Lively returning, hopefully to 100%, it’s unclear if Dallas needs more. This is the same division Wembanyama is in, and attacking the paint helps offenses thrive. Does Dallas have enough paint presence and pressure to sustain leads? Also, what does the health and readiness of Luka look like? He didn’t look good in the Finals or the Olympic Qualifying game against Greece.
    • While the interior is in question, the perimeter looks solid – at least on paper. It’s not if, but when for Klay Thompson to come back into the fold, fully able to perform how he did before is injury in the Championship series against Toronto. Dallas will need him to be a better 3 and D guy and it looks looks like Dallas has the ability to help him make it so.
  • San Antonio (35 – 47)
    • The Alien and Co. took a gamble in FA with acquiring Chris Paul this off season, and will be awarded a thirteen game improvement from last season. Chris Paul is a proven vet at the PG position, and sets up Popovich for another “successful” year for the Spurs organization. Although this team will be scrapping for 10th seed, at best, the league will be put on notice that they’re next up as a West contender.
    • This Spurs team still faces a huge climb in all 3 categories: they still don’t have a set team with defined roles, they don’t have enough a plan of attack other than “play basketball” and they play in one of the toughest divisions in the league. The goal for the Spurs should be to stay competitive enough to at least find what they can keep outside of Sochan, Paul and Wembanyama. That’s a hard ask when every other player wants to either start or stay.
    • The “Chris Paul Effect” is real. There is no doubt that each team he has been on has dramatically improved in wins, the assist-to-turnover ratio category and in interior scoring. The scoring and wins aren’t as important as the turnovers. SA needs to have the ball more, to allow the team to work on its offense, so it can score, and ultimately build a better team. None of that can happen when this team turns the ball over, and now Tre Jones can have someone to help him improve (something Brandon Podziemski and SGA both benefited from) at the same position.
  • New Orleans (45 – 37)
    • “Less is More,” or at least something to that effect for a Pelicans team that, for either contract, health or performance reasons, haven’t been able to crack that top 6 in the West. Personnel changes, a new-look Zion and so on have us wondering how New Orleans matches up inside and outside the division.
    • This team lost a serviceable backup big in Jonas Valanciunas – along with about 10 rebounds and a good rest period for Zion. It also shortened the paint in height and paint defense – 2 things pivotal in a division featuring one of the tallest players at the Power Forward and Center positions. Given Zion’s track record for being perpetually injured, someone on the roster or out in the ether needs to step in soon, or this team is looking at another introduction to a 1st round playoff exit. Also – Has anyone checked on Brandon Ingram since the Murray acquisition?
    • Dejounte Murray – on paper, probably the 2nd best addition offensively (1st – Mikal Bridges/NYK) to a team that could barely keep pace last season (117.4 Off Rtg, 97.9 PPG) with the league, let alone the West. His offense alone will improve the scoring aspect, as well as give some relief to BI and Zion in that regard. The best thing for this team is that its steals specialist, Jose Alvarado, now has Olympic experience behind him, and will add his leadership skills from that experience to this team that really needs an anchor right now.
  • Houston (31 – 51)
    • Houston has to be on par, experiment-wise, with NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights: the compilation from last year of guards and a new coach made the team’s duration fun, interesting, yet unlike VGK, didn’t produce its intended results. The guard-heavy roster will get balanced, but what will Udoka do, especially with his now 2nd-year Thompson?
    • The health bug robbed us of that little run Houston went on in the middle of last season. The lack of depth at the 4 and 5 spots leads me to believe this team will be all run and gun, opposite of how Udoka ran the Celtics 2 seasons ago. That, will NOT work. That’s where the ten-game regression comes from. This team has all upside this season, as well as a strong 2nd year class to ride on.
    • Being one of the more athletic teams has a huge benefit in a division trying to settle itself behind Dallas. This is not a bad team. It just needs time to gel.
  • Memphis (30 – 52)
    • The Grizzlies are going to be one of the most-hyped teams this season thanks to the return of All-Star Ja Morant. His mere presence elevates a league that will soon be devoid of perennial Hoops stars. How far will that hype take them?
    • Missing Morant, JJJ’s lack of interior presence, no clear identity for this team and a lack of depth at the big position has us worried that this team loses due to bad match-ups. There is currently very little data to support a significant turnaround for this team.
    • Returning stars, improvement in health and a somewhat open season on stealing wins gives Memphis a unique opportunity to make noise and be a disruption in the West. Those 2 aspects alone should be enough to keep the top honest, scheme for more than just another basketball game and give us the data of just how ready this team is!

For the Southwest, there’s nothing more exciting, dangerous or noteworthy than a shootout. While the head of this league is Luka Doncic, it’s still lingers upon his readiness to dominate this division, let alone the league. Time is nigh and it’s time for teams to draw! Let us know where we hit, missed or need to aim higher.