AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Over -115

Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Over -155

Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Under +110

Denver Broncos: 5.5 Under +120

The Chiefs are the clear cut favorites to win the division, but the odds to win the AFC West are not inviting for them here at all. Considering they have won 12 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons, have a pretty favorable schedule to go along with an expected better offense than 2023 (They won 11 games), I like a play on Kansas City to go over this number. I do lean the Chargers to go over with new head coach Jim Harbaugh and one of the easier schedules on paper; Considering the juice at -155, possible early injury concern for quarterback Justin Herbert, the questions about who will make the plays on offense, and this teams inconsistency (although that was under Brandon Staley) over the last few seasons, I would not blame anyone for taking the “I gotta see it to believe it” approach, and staying away. I know the Raiders ended the year nicely under new coach Antonio Pierce and this defense should be fun to watch, but they play a tough road schedule that includes the Ravens, Rams, Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Saints. The home slate also draws the Steelers, Falcons, Browns, and those same Chiefs. Can Gardnew Minshew lead this offense to do enough? I don’t see it. At plus money, I will give the under a play. The Broncos still have a tough defense, but that is really all this team has. It is very hard to see this rookie led offense pulling off 6 wins. Raiders, Panthers, and Chargers at home are winnable, and maybe an ugly road win at Tampa is in the cards, but even then this is a 4 win team. At plus money, I’ll ride with the under.

AFC South

Houston Texans: 9.5 Over -140

Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Over +110

Jacksonsville Jaguars: 8.5 Under +100

Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Under -135

The Texans have been the talk of the league and rightfully so. The additions on both sides of the ball (Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and defensive end Danielle Hunter) to go with the stellar rookie season of quarterback CJ Stroud and the young duo of Tank Dell and Nico Collins has plenty to marvel at. The 1st place schedule in 2024 is not a walk in the park by any means. 7 playoff teams, three that reached the conference championship, and the Super Bowl champs. I see this team winning 10 games and I understand the small plus money play to win the division, but I’d add a play on the Indianapolis Colts at +340 as well. The Colts defense, led by DeForest Buckner had 51 sacks last season. Rookie Laiatu Latu is a potential defensive rookie of the year, and this unit could easily hit 60+ sacks on the year. The offense gets Anthony Richardson back behind a top-tier offensive line. Jonathan Taylor looked like his old self the 2nd half of last season, and they have multiple playmakers in the wide receiver room, led by Michael Pittman. If they can split with Houston and sweep the Jags and Titans, the AFC South crown could be theirs. It is worth a sprinkle, and I am definitely on the over 8.5 win total for this team. I am not sure that the offensive and defensive lines have improved for this Jaguar team, and the secondary is still not good. Are rookie Brian Thomas Jr and free agent signing Gabe Davis better than Calvin Ridley? There is a good chance this team is 0-4 with the Dolphins, Browns, Bills and Texans to start the season. Weeks 5 and 6 have the Colts and Bears. Looking at a 2-4 record at this point? The rest of the schedule still sees the Packers, Eagles, Lions, Jets, along with a 2nd matchup against Houston and Indy. Take the under 8.5 at plus money. I like quarterback Will Levis in year 2, and I like the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. These changes along with a new coaching regime and what looks to be a much improved defense in 2024 gives some reason to be excited in Tennessee. This team will be competitive and much more fun to watch, but this schedule just doesn’t have 7 wins on it. At -135, I will gladly take the under here. Of the four “bottom” AFC teams (Patriots, Raiders, Broncos, Titans), at +900 to be a wildcard team, they would be my longshot sprinkle.