AFC East

Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Under -155

New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155

New England Patriots: 4.5 Under +110

Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135

Josh Allen is still the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, and he is a better player than when Stefon Diggs first showed up to Bills country. There is not a better receiver on this team than Diggs, but they have some depth with Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and rookie Keon Coleman. James Cook should have another solid season behind a good run-blocking offensive line, and Dalton Kincaid showed us he can be a top 5 tight end in this league. The defense was banged up for a lot of 2023 but this front seven can get after the quarterback and they will do so again in 2024. This team will have another good season and a shot at the 10 win mark, but that would still bring them short of the 10.5 line here. The New York Jets do not need vintage Aaron Rodgers; They need an upgrade from Zach Wilson and Mike White. Rodgers can easily give them that, and we expect big years from Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense will once again be a force and a the reason this team will start the season 4-1. This will enough to carry them to the 10 win mark and compete with Buffalo and Miami for the AFC East title. I would not be surprised to see all three teams having a chance to win the division as we head into the last week of the season. The Dolphins offense look to be a well-oiled machine under head coach Mike McDaniel and that won’t change with the cast of characters on this team. The defense lost Christian Wilkins on the line but added Jordan Poyer, Shaquil Barrett, and Jordyn Brooks. Pressure on the quarterback will be key for this defensive unit, as it is for most, but they will be good enough to not lose games for their team. Save the best for last? Not in this case! The Patriots defense will keep them in some ball games, but it is hard to see the offense being much better than it was last year. Rookie Drake Maye will eventually take over the offense and maybe spark a struggling team, but it will be more about seeing that he can be the future of the Pats, and less about winning games. It is extremely realistic that they go 0-6 against the AFC East and would have to go 5-6 outside of those games. I will again take the plus money and go under 4.5 here.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +125

Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125

Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over +100

Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 17 years with Steelers. The addition of Patrick Queen to go with TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick will have this defense as one of the best in the league. The QB play can only go up from last year, regardless of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at the helm. The Steelers lack a real wide receiver two to open the year, but it will be the ground game with a lot of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth (Arthur Smith will get the most out of his tight end). Give me the plus money to trust that Tomlin and the Steelers find a way to win 9+ once again. The Bengals get star quarterback, Joe Burrow back and have improved their secondary with the addition of Geno Stone and Vonn Bell. The team also brought in Sheldon Rankins to fill the loss of DJ Reader on the defensive line, and added an offensive lineman in the 1st round of the 2024 draft, and also brought in veteran Trent Brown. Joe Mixon is no longer here, but the combo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown should bring some explosiveness to this backfield. 3-3 in a tough division sets them up to go 8-4 against the rest of their favorable 2024 schedule. The Baltimore Ravens have continuity on both sides of the football and added Derrick Henry to head what is always a good running game. Mark Andrews is healthy to start the season and John Harbaugh continues to churn out winning seasons. This team is primed for a deep run once again and with the same odds (+145) as the Bengals to win the division, I think that has to be the play, as well as their over 10.5 win total. It seems that the toughest division in football will see all four of their teams hit the over. The Browns defense is one of the best in the league. They will be the force that carries this team. Jerome Ford is being slept on for this team but he is a very capable back, and they hope to get Nick Chubb back at some point as well. Deshaun Watson does not need to be the guy we saw in Houston, but he does need to be better. He has enough around him, including a solid add in Jerry Jeudy. A great defense, coupled with a healthy Watson should get this team to the nine win mark and cover that 8.5 win total.