By Dennis Michelsen
@DMICMEDIA
http://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
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Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just week one in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses three different statistical tools to get a consensus rating on each player. It uses data from the current season plus the last two seasons, but each week is weighted heavily for the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week one.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a consistent scoring metric for making Flex starting decisions throughout the season.
Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to treat outlier data in a way that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season’s data is weighted more to keep it updated for this season’s performances.
Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to 15 points for the RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. Although the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player, aiding in Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, judging each QB against each other versus the same point value is what is most important. The last ten games played are used for this measurement.
Top 15 at QB
- Josh Allen- Started the year with the best performance in Fantasy Football
- Lamar Jackson- Close behind, and it seems fitting that he is right behind Josh after losing week one
- Baker Mayfield- Three touchdown passes in week one keep him high on this list
- Jayden Daniels- Week one wasn’t great, but he set the bar very high last year
- Joe Burrow- Had his usual slow start in week one despite getting snaps in the preseason
- Jalen Hurts- That rushing upside is the key, and he started with two rushing TDs in week one
- Patrick Mahomes- Solid game one, but lost another key WR
- Jared Goff- Rough start to the season, but gets home cooking advantage this week
- Brock Purdy- Turf toe injury will cost him 2-5 games
- Justin Fields- Would have finished as RB16 with only his rushing points last week
- Jordan Love- Two passing TDs in week one were a nice start
- Bo Nix- Struggled in week one with the second-worst game of his young career
- Justin Herbert- Was on fire last week in the opener and added points with his legs
- Sam Darnold- A horrible start the previous week, but buoyed by last year’s stats
- Dak Prescott- Slow beginning last week, but his back class should start showing in week 2
Top 30 at RB
- Bijan Robinson- A threat to score any time he gets the ball
- De’Von Achane- Only bright spot for the Dolphins during ugly week one
- Jahmyr Gibbs- One of the few brighter spots for the Lions in week one
- Saquon Barkley- A typical solid week one performance
- Alvin Kamara- Only two receptions in week one
- Derrick Henry- A rare fumble in week one, but led all RBs last week
- Kyren Williams- Never looks spectacular, but always gets the job done
- Christian McCaffrey- Scared everyone by missing practice before the 31-touch game
- Josh Jacobs- Not a great week one by his standards, but that bar is set high
- Chase Brown- Still found the endzone on a down week for the Bengals offense
- Jonathon Taylor- Solid week one performance, even without a TD
- Breece Hall- Showed his best class last week with a strong performance
- Bucky Irving- Not a great week, but did find the end zone as usual
- James Cook- Rushing yards down, but caught five passes and found the end zone
- James Conner- Lost some volume to Trey Benson in week one
- David Montgomery- The Lions’ offense was awful last week
- Chuba Hubbard- Still had a strong game on a down week for the Panthers’ offense
- JK Dobbins- 18 to 7 touch advantage over the rookie in week one
- Aaron Jones- Volume split should keep him from hitting Top 12
- Ken Walker- Ugly week one with only 2 yards per carry
- Rachad White- Only saw three touches in week one, will fall out of the Top 30 soon
- Austin Ekeler- Lost opportunities to the rookie they call BILL in week one
- Jordan Mason- Solid RB2 type this year if the volume split continues
- Isiah Pacheco- The Chiefs never established the running game in week one
- Travis Etienne- More performances like week one, and he will crack the Top 12
- Dylan Sampson- Can we see another eight catch performance?
- Tony Pollard- The Titans’ offense got off to a slow start in week one
- Tyrone Tracy- Has held the rookie off for the starting spot so far
- Jacory Corskey Merritt- Had a solid first game and should be headed to the Top 15
- D’Andre Swift- Hot and cold in week one, will need to do better to hold off the rookie
Top 35 at WR
- Puka Nacua- Showed in week one that Davante Adams will help, not hurt him
- Cee Dee Lamb- The Cowboys’ offense looked awful, but he got his 100+ yards
- Ja’Marr Chase- Curse of the top pick in Fantasy Football continued in week one
- Justin Jefferson- Had his first gritty of the season and loves his new QB
- Amon Ra St Brown- The Lions’ offense got lost on the way to Green Bay in week one
- Tyreek Hill- Calling the Dolphins’ Offense a dumpster fire would be an insult to dumpster fires
- Davante Adams- Will be dropping in rankings as the season goes forward
- Nico Collins- An awful week for the Texans’ offense last week
- Keenan Allen- If the Chargers continue to throw more, Allen will stay Top 20
- Brian Thomas Jr- Finished WR43 in week one with the Jaguars offense struggling
- Malik Nabers- Finished WR29 in week one and hopes to see the rookie QB soon
- Mike Evans- Old reliable was reliable week one, but the rookie outperformed him
- AJ Brown- Got beat out in Fantasy points by Johan Dotson
- DJ Moore- Lost volume to Odunze in week one
- Ladd McConkey- No longer the only receiving option on the Chargers
- Jakobi Meyers- Death, taxes, and another solid game from Meyers
- Courtland Sutton- Still WR13 on an off week for the Broncos’ offense
- Tee Higgins- Probably showing up on milk bottles all over town this week
- Terry McLaurin- Wasn’t ready for week one after a lengthy holdout
- Stefon Diggs- Boutte had one more target in week one
- Cooper Kupp- Not much of a factor in the week one attack
- DeVonta Smith- Another WR duo that went missing in week one
- Emeka Egbuka- Rating system responds slowly to rookies, should reach Top 12 soon
- JaxonSmith-Njigbaa- Saw 13 targets in week one and should be on the rise
- Drake London- Saw 15 targets with only eight catches in week one
- Garret Wilson- No competition for target share among the WRs with the Jets
- Zay Flowers- Stepped up big with the most points at the WR position in week one
- Deebo Samuel- Has found a lovely home in the Commanders’ offense
- Marvin Harrison Jr- Excellent week one performance should be on the rise soon
- Michael Pittman- WR9 on the week and could have scored even more
- Jerry Jeudy- Was missing in action early in the game, but had a strong finish in week one
- Chris Olave- When he stays healthy, he is a Top 15 talent at the position
- Jayden Reed- Held off the rookie in week one
- George Pickens- Said all that matters is winning after losing in week one
- Calvin Ridley- The Titans’ offense looked ugly in week one
Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride- If he ever figures out where the endzone is, he will be a cheat code
- Brock Bowers – The Fantasy Football Elite TE drafting world went into shock with his injury.
- George Kittle- Heading to the IR so that he will leave this list for a while next week
- Johnnu Smith – Picked up right where he left off last year, finding the endzone week in and week one.
- Travis Kelce- TE8 on the week without Taylor in the stands
- David Njoku- How will the emergence of a rookie TE affect him?
- Mark Andrews- Week one was awful in a week where everyone else shone
- Sam LaPorta- His TE5 finish in week one was the lone bright spot for the offense
- TJ Hockenson- Was a non-factor in week one with the new QB
- Evan Engram- Week one injury was right on brand for him
- Zach Ertz- Could have another solid season
- Tyler Warren- Should be rising to the Top 5 soon
- Dallas Goedert- Another TE on the injury list heading to week two
- Harold Fannin Jr- His first game was a memorable one, finishing the week as TE6
- Dalton Kincaid- TE4 on the week and looked like he is a solid part of a great offense
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