by Dennis Michelsen

Leaders of the Pack After Week Three 

by Dennis Michelsen https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com/leaders-of-the-pack-after-week-three

Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just week one in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system utilizes three different statistical tools to obtain a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season, as well as the last two seasons, but each week is weighted more heavily in favor of the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week three. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a consistent score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season.  

Upside Index 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to treat outlier data in a way that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season’s data is weighted more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances. 

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player, helping with Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, judging each QB against each other, using the same point value, is what is most important. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

1. Lamar Jackson- The Ravens defense will make Lamar put on his Superman Cape all year 
2. Josh Allen- Being rated second best in Fantasy Football to Lamar is not bad.
3. Baker Mayfield- Those who doubted Baker could repeat spent more on a Top 3 QB
4. Jayden Daniels- Mariota was solid in reserve, so there is no need to rush him back.
5. Jalen Hurts (+2). They opened the offense up more last week, and it paid off.
6. Jared Goff benefited from light winds in BAL and had another solid game
7. Patrick Mahomes (+2) Will he get back one of his best WRs this week? 
8. Brock Purdy (+3) should return to action this week
9. Sam Darnold (+3). After struggling in week one, he has posted two solid weeks 
10. Jordan Love- If the Packers’ defense wasn’t so strong, he might be Top 5 right now
11. Justin Fields (+3). The Jets’ offense looked awful without him
12. Bo Nix (-4) hasn’t been as solid so far in year two
13. Dak Prescott (+2). Can he get it done without his best WR? 
14. Justin Herbert (-1) discovered another possible target in rookie TE Gadsden.
15. Drake Maye (NEW) His rushing upside could push him into the Top 10 soon

Top 30 at RB

1. De’Von Achane- One of only five RBs to have 15 or more points each game this year
2. Jahmyr Gibbs (+1) didn’t get the memo that this offense would struggle without Ben Johnson.
3. Bijan Robinson (-1) Penix has been awful, so teams only need to stop Bijan
4. Christian McCaffrey (+1) One of only two RBs to top 20 points each game this season
5. Saquon Barkley (-1). A strong rush defense can slow him down a little bit
6. Jonathon Taylor (+1) Colts’ offense has been impressive and is very well-balanced too
7. Kyren Williams (+1). It might not be pretty, but he grinds his way to a solid result
8. Alvin Kamara (-2). Will he get traded to a better offense before the deadline? 
9. Derrick Henry (+1). The end of the world might be near; the King has fumbled every game.
10. Josh Jacobs (-1) Imagine how good he might be when this offense starts clicking every game.
11. James Cook (+1) The other RB to score 20 or more each game this season 
12. Bucky Irving (-1) They seem to be managing his volume early in the year 
13. David Montgomery- Part of the best 1-2 RB punch in the NFL right now
14. Chuba Hubbard (+2) Bryce Young has taken a step back to start the year
15. Breece Hall (+2) Breece Lightning should return with a real QB back in charge
16. James Conner (-1) Last week on this chart due to a season-ending injury
17. Chase Brown (-3) has fallen seven spots in the last 2 weeks, and his offensive line looks bad
18. JK Dobbins- Will he give up more volume to the rookie RB by midseason? 
19. Ken Walker- Loss of Charbonnet opens the volume for KW3
20. Cam Skattebo (NEW) was taking over as lead RB before the injury to Tracy
21. Jordan Mason (+3) Injury to Jones could push him into the Top 12 if he can stay healthy
22. Travis Etienne- Splitting the volume but still being very productive relative to his ADP
23. Rachad White- Impossible to forecast the volume from week to week
24. Isiah Pacheco (+1). Only injuries to other RBs moved him up a spot
25. Javonte Williams (+1) might be the only move the Cowboys got right this year
26. Quinshon Judkins (NEW) Lead RB job is his unless a suspension or injury comes his way
27. Jaylen Warren (+3), Rookie RB, is so deep into the doghouse that even the cat is laughing about it
28. Tony Pollard (NEW) Offense has struggled, which has kept him from rising 
29. D’Andre Swift (-2) could lose volume to the rookie over time
30. Rhamondre Stevenson (NEW). His fumble issues last week make his future volume uncertain

Top 35 at WR

1. Puka Nacua- The undisputed top WR in Fantasy Football in redraft or dynasty  
2. Cee Dee Lamb- High ankle sprains can be tough to overcome
3. Ja’Marr Chase- Already missing Burrow and continuing the 1.01 draft curse
4. Amon Ra St Brown- The second most reliable WR in Fantasy Football right now
5. Malik Nabers- The rookie QB is taking over, and he does have a live arm
6. Keenan Allen (+2) And they say you can never go home…
7. Justin Jefferson (-1) is off to one of his worst starts since his rookie year.
8. Tyreek Hill (-1) He only leads Father Time by a few steps in the big race for his future.
9. Davante Adams- The perfect compliment to Puka in this Rams offense
10. Nico Collins (+2), the Texans’ passing offense, finally found some life last week
11. Brian Thomas Jr (-1) Misses having Mac Jones at QB 
12. Mike Evans (-1). His annual hamstring injury will put him on the shelf for a while
13. AJ Brown- Now that he broke the seal on Fantasy Football production this season, look out
14. DJ Moore (+1) Odunze has been terrific, which has hurt DJ’s volume so far
15. DeVonta Smith (+9) is the Biggest mover upward at WR this week 
16. Courtland Sutton (+5) Two solid weeks and one flop this season 
17. Jakobi Meyers (-1), the Raiders’ offensive line looks shaky so far 
18. Ladd McConkey (-1) Drafted as WR3 in league but currently WR3 on his own team
19. Stefon Diggs- Father Time has caught up to this once-great veteran 
20. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+3). Three terrific weeks in a row have him on his way to the Top 10 soon
21. Tee Higgins (-7). Last time Browning was the starter, Higgins did better than Chase 
22. Terry McLaurin (-2) is playing his way back into shape. Look for better production soon
23. Garret Wilson (+3) Two games over 20 PPR points this season, had four last 2 years combined
24. Cooper Kupp (-6). His role on this team doesn’t seem to include enough volume yet 
25. Deebo Samuel (-3.) Will he continue to experience these dud weeks, as he has in the past? 
26. Drake London (-1). If Penix doesn’t improve or get replaced, it could be a long season for Drak.e
27. George Pickens (+1) Injury to Lamb has him as the featured WR the next couple of weeks.
28. Michael Pittman (+5) Starring in “Indiana Jones and the Legend of Pittman” 
29. Zay Flowers (-2) When he is good, he is perfect, but when he is not, Bateman is instead
30. Emeka Egbuka (-1) will be the featured WR now until Godwin returns
31. Chris Olave- Solid but not spectacular due to having Rattler at QB
32. Jaylen Waddle- Home/away splits for the MIA offense are incredible
33. Rashid Shaheed (NEW) Doubtful this passing offense can support two in Fantasy Football
34. Jauan Jennings (+1) can’t seem to stay healthy after the contract holdout 
35. Quentin Johnson (NEW) QJ is finally looking like the player many thought he could be 

Top 15 at TE

1. Trey McBride- Best Fantasy Football TE right now and even scored a rare TD
2. Brock Bowers- Injury is slowing him down a bit
3. Mark Andrews (+4) saw a 540% boost to scoring last week 
4. Johnu Smith (-1) is still living off the fantastic finish from last year in these ratings
5. Travis Kelce- Has been solid for a regular TE so far, but not Kelce-like yet 
6. David Njoku (-2) The rookie TE is cutting his volume
7. Sam LaPorta (-1) Too many mouths to feed on that offense for him to be rated any higher
8. TJ Hockenson (+2) got along much better with the cagey veteran at QB last week 
9. Zach Ertz- Was a great late-round bargain at TE again this season 
10. Dallas Goedert (NEW) Two for two in 10+ PPR Point games this year 
11. Jake Ferguson (+3) has seen 26 targets in the last 2 weeks 
12. Juwan Johnson (-1) is the Only TE other than McBride to post three games in double digits this year.
13. Dalton Kincaid (NEW) is turning into the best pass-catching option for the Bills.
14. Hunter Henry (NEW) could have a solid season in Fantasy Football this year 
15. Tucker Kraft (-3) Injury concern could slow him down for a while after one big week