by Dennis Michelsen
(https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com/leaders-of-the-pack-after-week-five), main site for all material
Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just a few weeks in determining who the leader is at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, but each week is weighted more heavily toward the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week five.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.
MVP25 Index
Now that we are four weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index for this season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether they will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season.
Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula for handling outlier data that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighted more to keep the data up to date for this season’s performances.
Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player for Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than the median for that position, judging each QB against the others with the same point value is what matters most. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
Top 15 at QB
- Lamar Jackson- The Ravens missed him, and so did Fantasy Football owners
- Josh Allen- This version of the Bills might be a 500 club without Josh Allen
- Baker Mayfield- Has so many weapons at his disposal and will get more back soon
- Jayden Daniels- His threat of running opens opportunities for everyone else
- Jalen Hurts- They tried more passing to appease the WRs and lost
- Patrick Mahomes- Mahomes’ Magic wasn’t enough on Monday night
- Justin Fields (+3) had a garbage-time performance against a weak defense last week
- Brock Purdy (-1). If he doesn’t come back fast, there might be a QB controversy in SF
- Jared Goff (-1) faces a strong wind game on Sunday Night Football
- Jordan Love (-1) One of the best values in Fantasy returns from Bye this week
- Bo Nix- Has been very consistent the last four weeks
- Dak Prescott- Bad defense will keep Dak shooting for 40 points a week
- Sam Darnold (+1). After struggling in week one, he has four excellent games
- Caleb Williams- Comes back from the Bye week to entertain us all again
- Drake Maye (-2) Gutsy performance on Monday Night to get a big win
Top 30 at RB
- Christian McCaffrey- One of only two players and the only RB with a perfect MVP this year
- Bijan Robinson- Comes back from Bye, and Fantasy managers missed him last week.
- Jonathon Taylor (+2) Can he stay healthy all year, and can Indiana Jones continue his hot streak?
- De’Von Achane (-1). His receiving ability gives him a safe floor every week
- Jahmyr Gibbs (-1). The Top six have a nice gap on RB7 in the rankings
- Kyren Williams (+2) keeps finding the endzone at a high rate
- Saquon Barkley- Leads the next tier of RBs in Fantasy Football
- Josh Jacobs (+1) Hopefully comes back from his bye week healthy
- Bucky Irving (+1) Fantasy Football Managers need him back fast
- James Cook (-4). Lack of receiving points makes him vulnerable to a bad game
- David Montgomery (+3) It looks like the Lions have found their backup QB, too
- Alvin Kamara (-1) Lost volume to Miller last week. Is a trade coming soon?
- Quinshon Judkins- New QB had this offense looking stronger last week
- Breece Hall (+1) RB13 to RB17 are very tight and will bounce around within this tier every week
- Javonte Williams (+4) is on his way to the top 10 if he can stay healthy
- Derrick Henry (-4) Down seven spots in the last 2 weeks and could fall out of the top 20 soon
- JK Dobbins – Very consistent, but when will he lose more volume to the rookie?
- Travis Etienne (-2). They are trying to keep him fresh, but that will cap his upside some weeks.
- Jacory Crosky Merrit (NEW) Wild Bill showed why he should get more volume moving forward.
- Chuba Hubbard (+3). His backup was more explosive with Chuba on the sidelines, hurt.
- Cam Skattebo (-1). If this offense were better, he could reach the top 10
- Chase Brown (-4) Will a change of QB help his fortunes going forward?
- Omarion Hampton (-2) Heading to the IR, so he will drop off this list for a while next week
- Ken Walker (-2) Volume split with Charbonnet, who might be better in this offensive scheme
- Rachad White (+3) is showing why you always handcuff your stud RB on a good offense.
- Ashton Jeanty (-2) Lousy QB play, and low volume are keeping him from being a star
- Jaylen Warren (-2) Will he return from the Bye healthy?
- Jordan Mason (-2) is showing that he is a solid NFL RB, but not an elite RB
- D’Andre Swift (-2). When will he lose the starting role to the dynamic rookie?
- Rico Dowdle (NEW) had a career game when he got a chance in this offense.
Top 35 at WR
- Puka Nacua- The only WR with a perfect MVP Index after 5 weeks
- Amon Ra St Brown- So much for the “OC is leaving, the offense will suffer” nonsense
- Justin Jefferson- Appears to be QB-proof when it comes to Fantasy production
- Cee Dee Lamb- Could be back from injury as early as this week
- Ja’Marr Chase (+3). Garbage Time production saved him last week, now a QB change is coming
- Davante Adams (-1) Getting WR1 production out of WR2 draft capital
- Emeka Egbuka (+5) has surged 23 spots higher in just the past 2 weeks
- Nico Collins (+1) has not seen one of his characteristic huge games and is still in the Top 10
- Keenan Allen (-2) could start slipping as McConkey gets into the flow of this offense more
- Deebo Samuel (+6) has moved up 15 spots in the last 2 weeks without McLaurin in the lineup
- Garret Wilson- My top drafted WR is the dominant target guy I expected to see this year
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+6) cracks the top 12 for the first time in his career
- Stefon Diggs (+6) Another guy I drafted a lot, but had my worries early on
- Jordan Addison (+3) might be the best WR2 in the NFL, even with Adams playing this well early
- Courtland Sutton (-2) will not lose target share in this offense. I was wrong about him
- Drake London (+4) comes back from the Bye week, hoping his QB can be more consistent
- George Pickens (-3) Dak has leaned on his TE more with Cee Dee out
- Brian Thomas Jr (-3) This version of the offense is spreading the ball around a bit more
- DJ Moore (+3) should slip out of the top 20 soon with Odunze stepping up as the WR1 on the Bears
- DeVonta Smith (+12) Lands on top of his teammate on this list, just like he did on that last play
- AJ Brown- Will he gripe his way out of town on a defended Super Bowl Champion?
- Quentin Johnson (+3) Drafted lots of QJ because he was a cheap WR4 option, didn’t expect this.
- Michael Pittman (+1). Four out of five games in double digits is a nice payoff at his ADP.
- DK Metcalf (+3) should continue to be Rodgers’ favorite target all season
- Jaylen Waddle (NEW) Without the Cheetah, he could penguin waddle his way to Top 10
- Zay Flowers- Defense is so bad the team might have to pass more than usual
- Rome Odunze (+2) Top 10 upside the rest of the season
- Terry McLaurin (+3) The Commanders’ offense misses him badly
- Jakobi Meyers (-4). Down 10 spots in just the last 2 weeks, offense not featuring him as much
- Ladd McConkey (+4) had his best game on a week that the Chargers had their worst production
- Chris Godwin (+2) will play his way into shape, but it could take a few more weeks.
- Chris Olave (-4) Getting the target share needed to be ranked even higher
- Cooper Kupp (+2). Will he lose playing time to their talented rookie WR?
- Rashid Sheheed (NEW) Big play guy showed that speed can kill in the NFL
- Tee Higgins (NEW) Not sure Flacco is an upgrade for his Fantasy hopes
Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride- If this guy started scoring more often, he would be TE1 without a doubt
- Brock Bowers- Injury is slowing him down this season
- Travis Kelce (+1) The older man might have wedding and retirement plans, but he can still ball out
- Sam LaPorta (+4) Hard to be consistent on an offense with so many weapons
- Jake Ferguson (+6) has a special chemistry with the QB on an offense that must score 35+ to win
- Darren Waller (+1) showed he still has the moves and got more snaps last week
- Johnu Smith (-1) could fall out of the Top 15 this season
- Mark Andrews (-5) needs a healthy Lamar back right away
- David Njoku (+1) Rookie has been solid, but the rookie QB targeted him 9 times
- Tyler Warren (-5) Four out of five games in double digits is a great start to a career
- Dallas Goedert (-2) has scored in double digits in every game he played this season
- Evan Engram (NEW) is playing his way back into shape and has top 5 upside
- Dalton Kincaid (NEW) Closer to his rookie season production this year
- TJ Hockenson (-1). Only one double-digit game all season
- Tucker Kraft (-1) Slipped a little in the rankings because of his Bye week
The Sports Affiliation 