by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just a few weeks in determining who the leader is at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, but each week is weighted more heavily toward the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week eight.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.
MVP25 Index
Now that we are four weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index for this season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether they will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season.
Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula for handling outlier data that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighted more to keep the data up to date for this season’s performances.
Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player for Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than the median for that position, judging each QB against the others with the same point value is what matters most. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
Top 15 at QB
- Lamar Jackson- Can the former MVP save the season for the Ravens?
- Josh Allen- The Bills’ defense is struggling, which puts even more on Allen
- Patrick Mahomes- The Offensive line has been the key to his success this season
- Jalen Hurts- The Eagles needed a week off for group therapy
- Jayden Daniels (+1). Did they give him long enough to heal?
- Baker Mayfield (-1). Worst game since coming to the Bucs last week
- Bo Nix (+2). Could he be even better than Drew Brees?
- Brock Purdy- 49ers need him back healthy if they want to compete in the Wild Wild West
- Drake Maye (+3) The Patriots have found their franchise QB
- Justin Herbert (+4) Offensive line woes are leading to more upside in rushing yards
- Dak Prescott (-4) Home MVP Index of 160 with only 40 on the road this season
- Jaxson Dart (-2). Can he be as solid without his fellow Superhero Skattebo?
- Jared Goff (-2) Great conductor doesn’t get enough credit for this excellent orchestra
- Jordan Love (NEW) One of the most underrated QBs in the game
- Sam Darnold (-2). His new team is in first place, his former team in last place
Top 30 at RB
- Christian McCaffrey- Lost his perfect MVP Index last week
- Jonathon Taylor (+2) More TDs than last season after just 8 weeks
- Bijan Robinson (-1) How can you only give your best player 10 touches?
- De’Von Achane (-1) Receiving skills are such a cheat code in PPR scoring
- Jahmyr Gibbs- Has been so excellent this year, I expected 3 TDs on his Bye week too
- Saquon Barkley (+3) had his first 100+ yard game and first multiple TD game of the year
- Josh Jacobs (-1) Starting to lose volume to Wilson, is he nursing an injury?
- Kyren Williams (-1) Every year, some smart people expect him to lose his job, and they are wrong.
- James Cook (+1). In five of his seven games this season, he has topped 100 yards in offense.
- Bucky Irving (-2) should be back after their Bye, and he is greatly needed
- Cam Skattebo- Suffered the most graphic injury on TV since Joe Theismann
- Breece Hall (+3) had a huge game to get the Jets their first win of the season
- Derrick Henry- This offense will be much better with Lamar back
- David Montgomery (-2) is not getting as many key touches this season
- Javonte Williams (+1). This is the player many expected to come out of college
- D’Andre Swift (+3) Not quite the Gibbs/Monty duo, but Swift is better with touches managed
- Chase Brown (+6) The Bengals are patching an offensive line back together, and it’s working
- Alvin Kamara (-4) Hard to believe he is no longer an automatic start in your Fantasy lineups
- Chuba Hubbard (-1) could continue to fall because Dowdle looks better in this offense
- Travis Etienne- Four straight solid games followed by three bad games, which ETN shows up after the bye
- JK Dobbins- Losing more key touches to the rookie
- Quinshon Judkins (-5) is the one bright star on the offense this season, and now he could be hurt.
- Rachad White (-1) has done a solid job holding down the fort without Bucky
- Ashton Jeanty (+3), and this is why a rookie RB on a bad team is a risky investment in FF
- Ken Walker- Lost five wings to Charbonnet during their bye week lunch
- Aaron Jones (NEW) Sam Darnold made this offense look so much better last season
- Rico Dowdle (-3) Better than Chuba, but not at the top 20 level on this offense
- Jaylen Warren- Held off the rookie this year, but limited upside
- Jordan Mason (-3) has lost the lead RB role to Jones and should fall off this chart soon
- Woody Marks (NEW) Starting to emerge as the most dynamic RB in Houston
Top 35 at WR
- Puka Nacua (+1). The Top two have separated themselves from the pack
- Amon Ra St Brown (-1) Death. Taxes and another solid year from the Sun God
- Ja’Marr Chase (+1) Joe Flacco on his Christmas Card list for life
- Cee Dee Lamb (-1). If he can stay healthy, he will lead lots of Fantasy teams to victory
- Rashee Rice (+7) Chiefs’ offense is complex to stop when he is in the lineup
- Davante Adams- Took over the lead WR duties quite well with Nacua sidelined
- Justin Jefferson (-2) Even he is surprised he misses Sam Darnold this much
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1) Incredible target share so far this season
- Jordan Addison (+2) Rating system is rewarding him for his consistency so far this season
- Keenan Allen (-3) Starting to lose volume to McConkey
- Garret Wilson (+6) Scholars will study how the Jets won their only game without him
- Emeka Egbuka (-2) Playing through a hamstring injury
- George Pickens- Would be WR1 if your league gives bonuses for excellent catches
- Nico Collins- Four straight double-digit games before the concussion
- Deebo Samuel (-7) Still seeing the spike and destructive week cycle for Deebo without Daniels
- Drake London (+2) missed a game, and the entire Falcons offense was awful
- Brian Thomas Jr (-2) wins the “Dumbest Trade Rumors of the Year” award this season
- Michael Pittman (+6) The rise of Indiana Jones should spawn another movie sequel
- Ladd McConkey (+3) Starting to see that end-of-rookie-season form return
- AJ Brown (-4) Top 10 talent in the weeks they decide to throw the ball deeper
- Courtland Sutton (-1) would be Top 10 in a league that awards pass interference points
- Chris Olave (+1) The volume hog on a bad offense
- DeVonta Smith (-4) Deep threat can score 15 Fantasy points on one play
- DK Metcalf (+1) This is where I expect DK to be every season
- Stefon Diggs (-4) hasn’t taken over the volume as much as some expected
- Jaylen Waddle (+3). Without Tyreek, he is flourishing in that lead WR role
- Quentin Johnson (-1) could fall off this list as Gadsden and McConkey rise
- Terry McLaurin (+2) suffered another injury on Monday Night Football
- Zay Flowers (-2) could benefit the most from Lamar’s return to action this week
- Rome Odunze (+4) The best WR on the Bears without a doubt
- Tee Higgins (-3) Three straight double-digit games with Flacco
- DJ Moore (-1) Losing volume but can still be a solid flex play
- Chris Godwin (-1) Injury issues are the only thing keeping him out of the Top 20
- Tetairoa McMillan (NEW) With better QB play, he could be Top 15
- Jakobi Meyers (-2). Will he be traded, and will that be better for his Fantasy value?
Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride- The undisputed TE1 this season
- Travis Kelce (+1) The older man can still find the endzone
- George Kittle (+3). Of course, he returned to Fantasy prominence on TE Day
- Brock Bowers- Raiders’ offense needs him back
- Dallas Goedert (+2) has benefited from all the attention given to everyone else.
- Tyler Warren (-4) should be in the Top 3 by the end of the season
- Tucker Kraft (+6) Five double-digit games already, only had seven all last year
- Jake Ferguson (-3) Offense fell apart on the road, and Ferguson got shut out
- Sam LaPorta (-1) Too many mouths to feed in Lions’ Den for him to be much higher
- Oronde Gadsden (NEW) could be the Free Square waiver addition of the year
- Zach Ertz (+1) will be even better with Daniels back at QB
- David Njoku (-2) could become more TD-dependent in this Browns offense
- Mark Andrews (-2). Only two solid games and five bad games this year
- Harold Fannin Jr (NEW) Three rookie TEs are in the Top 15 already
- Johnu Smith (-6) has turned back into a TD-dependent TE in Fantasy
The Sports Affiliation 