by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
Too many people in Fantasy Football get locked into looking at year-end points. Winning in Fake Football is about having a strong team for all four quarters of the season. You need some players that start strong, and you also need to have some talented rookies who can emerge later in the season. When I was handicapping harness horse races, I knew whether my odds of winning were better or worse when I heard the announcer say, “They are by the half in 59 flat,” whether I had the front runner or a closer. In Fantasy Football, we have just reached the halfway point of the season, and by now, you should know which teams are likely to make the playoffs and which will be out of the money. Let’s look at where we are after eight weeks in the season.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE provides a consistent score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season.
Atlanta Falcons
QB Michael Penix: Forecast 75 with range 40 to 85
MVP25 of 0
RB Bijan Robinson: Forecast 140 with range 110 to 155
MVP25 of 143
WR Drake London: Forecast 90 with range 75 to 100
MVP25 of 100
WR Darnell Mooney: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 70
MVP 25 of -60
TE Kyle Pitts: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 40
MVP25 of 43
Last week, I heard so many Fantasy Football analysts recommending Darnell Mooney as a play with Drake London sidelined. Looking at his current MVP Index, Kyle Pitts would pick up the slack and he did. If a player has an MVP Index below zero, they can’t be trusted. Michael Penix is below his forecast, while Bijan, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are all where they were expected to be this season.
Arizona Cardinals
QB Kyler Murray: Forecast 80 with range 65 to 95
MVP25 of 40
RB James Conner: Forecast 90 with range 80 to 115
MVP25 of 67 (Injured)
RB Trey Benson: Forecast 60 with range 35 to 85
MVP25 of 33 (injured)
WR Marvin Harrison Jr: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 29
TE Trey McBride: Forecast 95 with range 75 to 110
MVP25 of 114
Kyler Murray has been a colossal disappointment this season and has nagging injuries, too, but should rise back to the lower end of his forecasted range. The RB situation for the Cardinals has been challenging due to injuries to their top two backs. Benson is expected back next week. My forecast for Marvin Harrison was well below consensus, so his result of being below my forecast doesn’t have any consequences for my teams this season. Trey McBride was forecast as the co-number one TE and has lived up to that billing.
Baltimore Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson: Forecast 125 with range 90 to 150
MVP25 of 150
RB Derrick Henry: Forecast 115 with range 80 to 140
MVP25 of 57
WR Zay Flowers: Forecast 75 with range 60 to 90
MVP25 of 71
WR Rashad Bateman: Forecast 55 with range 40 to 70
MVP25 of -57
TE Mark Andrews: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 75
MVP25 of 0
The loss of Lamar Jackson to injury has hurt the Ravens and many Fantasy Football teams. If you managed to limp past the halfway point in contention, you will be rewarded with great performances from Lamar in the second half. How much of King Henry’s drop is due to losing Lamar, and how much Father Time is catching up to him, is debatable. Flowers’ forecast was right on the money, but I expected better performances from Bateman and Andrews.
Buffalo Bills
QB Josh Allen: Forecast 115 with range 105 to 140
MVP25 of 129
RB James Cook: Forecast 90 with range 65 to 100
MVP25 of 129
WR Khalil Shakir: Forecast 75 to range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 71
WR Keon Coleman: Forecast 65 with range 20 to 85
MVP25 of 29
TE Dalton Kincaid: Forecast 35 with range 10 to 50
MVP25 of 33
Without Josh Allen and James Cook, this Buffalo offense would be below average. Both players are expected to hit their forecast ranges this year. The reason I had a lower forecast for Cook was the lack of passing game work, and that has been verified so far. The pass catchers are all within their forecasted ranges.
Carolina Panthers
QB Bryce Young: Forecast 75 with range 40 to 100
MVP25 of 43
RB Chuba Hubbard: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 33
WR Tetairoa McMillan: Forecast 95 with range 70 to 110
MVP25 of 75
WR Xavier Legette: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 70
MVP25 of -17
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of -60
The RB situation for the Panthers has evolved into an RBBC split between Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, which caps the upside for either player, making neither a wise start every week. McMillan is right where I expected him to be, and Legette and Sanders should close in the second half to be close to their forecasted ranges by the end of the season.
Chicago Bears
QB Caleb Williams: Forecast 60 with a range of 40 to 100
MVP25 of 71
RB D’Andre Swift: Forecast 75 with a range of 50 to 100
MVP25 of 114
WR DJ Moore: Forecast 80 with range of 65 to 110
MVP25 of 29
WR Rome Odunze: Forecast 60 with a range of 20 to 80
MVP25 of 86
TE Colston Loveland: Forecast 40 with a range of 30 to 75
MVP25 of -67
After a fast first quarter, Caleb Williams slowed a bit during the second quarter and is now right in the middle of his forecasted range. My forecast for Swift was above consensus, so I am being rewarded by his even better result so far, following a strong post-bye week run. DJ Moore has indeed lost volume to Odunze, who is the clear WR1 on this team. The rookie Loveland got off to a slow start but should have a stronger second half.
Cincinnati Bengals
QB Joe Burrow: Forecast 125 with a range of 100 to 140
MVP25 of -100 (Injured)
RB Chase Brown: Forecast 115 with a range of 90 to 135
MVP25 of 75
WR Ja’Marr Chase: Forecast 135 with a range of 85 to 150
MVP25 of 112
WR Tee Higgins: Forecast 90 with a range of 75 to 120
MVP25 of 62
TE Mike Gesecki: Forecast 35 with a range of 10 to 60
MVP25 of -100 (Injured)
The loss of Joe Burrow got this offense off to a horrible start, but the trade for Joe Flacco has saved the Fantasy Football season for many of the Bengals. Brown has an MVP Index of 100 since Flacco took over as the starting QB with Chase at 200 and Higgins at 133. They should rise back to their expected forecasts easily. Gesecki is done for the season, and new addition Noah Fant is at an MVP Index of 33 with Flacco.
Cleveland Browns
QB Joe Flacco: Forecast 30 with a range of 0 to 70
MVP25 of 43
RB Quinshon Judkins: Forecast 75 with a range of 50 to 90
MVP25 of 71
WR Jerry Jeudy: Forecast 75 with range 35 to 95
MVP25 of -37
WR Cedrick Tillman: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
MVP25 of 25 (Injured)
TE David Njoku: Forecast 60 with range 25 to 75
MVP25 of 14
Flacco has found a better home in Cincy, and new QB Dillon Gabriel has an MVP Index of -33 so far. Judkins is dealing with an injury, and his MVP is right on target per my forecast. I was lower than consensus on Jeudy, so his poor performance hasn’t affected my teams. Tillman’s grade is incomplete with his injury, and Njoku is sharing TE volume with the talented rookie Harold Fannin.
Dallas Cowboys
QB Dak Prescott: Forecast 90 with range 75 to 110
MVP25 of 88
RB Javonte Williams: Forecast 60 with range 35 to 85
MVP25 of 125
RB Mile Sanders: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
MVP25 of 0
WR Cee Dee Lamb: Forecast 120 with range 100 to 145
MVP25 of 100
WR George Pickens: Forecast 80 with range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 125
TE Jake Ferguson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 45
MVP25 of 100
Dak has a huge home/away split, with an MVP Index of 160 at home and 40 on the road. However, those are too small data sizes to conclude; his overall forecast is correct within his range. Williams has exceeded the top end of his projections, but was so cheap he ended up on several of my teams this season. Lamb and Pickens should end the season right in their forecast ranges. Ferguson was virtually free in drafts this season and has paid off, exceeding his forecast.
Denver Broncos
QB Bo Nix: Forecast 90 with range 65 to 100
MVP25 of 100
RB RJ Harvey: Forecast 70 with range 45 to 100
MVP25 of 25
RB JK Dobbins: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 90
MVP25 of 62
WR Courtland Sutton: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 85
MVP25 of 62
WR Marvin Mims: Forecast 75 with range 30 to 100
MVP25 of -12
TE Evan Engram: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 70
MVP25 of 0
Bo Nix is having a solid season at the top end of his forecasted range. If you only look at full games played by Harvey, his MVP Index is 50 right now. I expect him to continue to get more volume in the second half of the season. Dobbins and Sutton are right in the middle of their forecasted ranges, but Mims and Engram have been disappointing so far.
Detroit Lions
QB Jared Goff: Forecast 95 with range 65 to 110
MVP25 of 57
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Forecast 140 with range 105 to 150
MVP25 of 114
RB David Montgomery: Forecast 90 with range 60 to 120
MVP25 of 57
WR Amon Ra St Brown: Forecast 125 with range 115 to 145
MVP25 of 143
WR Jameson Williams: Forecast 80 with range 60 to 115
MVP25 of 0
TE Sam LaPorta: Forecast 55 with range 25 to 70
MVP25 of 43
Goff is a little lower than his forecasted range, but this offense isn’t struggling as much as some thought it would without Ben Johnson. Gibbs, Monty, and ARSB are close to their expected forecasted ranges at the halfway mark of the season. I was much lower than the consensus on Williams, so his poor performance has not affected my teams at all, with zero shares in redraft this season. LaPorta has been the top week TE, who is much better in Best Ball than in set lineups again this season.
Green Bay Packers
QB Jordan Love: Forecast 90 with range 80 to 110
MVP25 of 86
RB Josh Jacobs: Forecast 120 with range 80 to 140
MVP25 of 129
WR Matthew Golden: Forecast 85 with range 60 to 110
MVP25 of 0
WR Jayden Reed: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 90
MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Romeo Doubs: Forecast 40 with range 20 to 70
MVP25 of 57
TE Tucker Kraft: Forecast 30 with range 20 to 45
MVP25 of 100
Jordan Love is performing just as expected, and his cheap ADP is paying dividends this season. Jacobs is having another solid season despite playing with some nagging injuries. Golden has been a colossal disappointment this season so far. Doubs is right on target at the halfway point of the season. Kraft has exceeded my forecast by a large margin, living up to his Best eight-game MVP Index from last season.
Houston Texans
QB CJ Stroud: Forecast 75 with range 30 to 90
MVP25 of 57
RB Nick Chubb: Forecast 60 with range 0 to 90
MVP25 of 14
RB Woody Marks: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 100
MVP25 of 14 (75 in Full Games Only)
WR Nico Collins: Forecast 115 with range 80 to 125
MVP25 of 83
WR Jayden Higgins: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 80
MVP25 of -57 (0 in Full Games Played)
WR Christian Kirk: Forecast 50 with range 35 to 75
MVP25 of 33
TE Dalton Schultz: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 55
MVP25 of 14
Stroud is right in the middle of his forecasted range, which was wide to show the level of uncertainty about his forecast. Chubb is towards the bottom of his range. Rookie RB Marks is living up to his expectations after a slow start. Collins is right where I expected him to be, but the rookie Higgins is just starting to see significant playing time in the last few weeks. Kirk and Schultz are currently at the low end of their forecasts.
Indianapolis Colts
QB Anthony Richardson: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 125
MVP25 of 0 (Benched)
RB Jonathon Taylor: Forecast 110 with range 80 to 145
MVP25 of 175
WR Michael Pittman: Forecast 70 with range 25 to 95
MVP25 of 100
WR Josh Downs: Forecast 65 with range 35 to 100
MVP25 of 43
TE Tyler Warren: Forecast 45 with range 10 to 70
MVP25 of 75
Daniel Jones was a complete mistake on my part, but I did take him late in some Superflex leagues, and that has paid off nicely. I was above consensus on JT, Pittman, and Warren, which has rewarded me nicely so far. Downs is proper where I expected him to be, and I was much lower than consensus on his potential for this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
QB Trevor Lawrence: Forecast 85 with range 65 to 105
MVP25 of 71
RB Travis Etienne: Forecast 65 with range 45 to 105
MVP25 of 57
RB Bhayshul Tuten: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
MVP25 of -57 (100 in Full Games Only)
RB Tank Bigsby: Forecast 45 with range 30 to 80
MVP25 of 0 (Traded)
WR Brian Thomas: Forecast 110 with range 80 to 120
MVP25 of 57
WR Travis Hunter: Forecast 75 with range 30 to 105
MVP25 of 14
TE Brenton Strange: Forecast 40 with range 0 to 65
MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
Trevor Lawrence has been hot and cold this season, but the result at the halfway point is correct in the middle of his forecasted range. After a fast start, ETN has regressed and dropped to the lower end of its range. Tuten is not yet getting enough volume to draw any conclusions about him. Thomas and Hunter are both well below my forecast for them, and an injury has derailed Stange’s season.
Kansas City Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes: Forecast 95 with range 75 to 135
MVP25 of 163
RB Isiah Pacheco: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 110
MVP25 of 0
RB Kareen Hunt: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 75
MVP25 of -12
RB Brashard Smith: Forecast 50 with range 30 to 80
MVP25 of -37 (100 in Full Games Only)
WR Rashee Rice: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 140
MVP25 of 200
WR Xavier Worthy: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 50
WR Hollywood Brown: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 85
MVP25 of 37
TE Travis Kelce: Forecast 65 with range 50 to 105
MVP25 of 75
I was way above consensus on Mahomes and Kelce, so I am being rewarded with Mahomes playing at a career-best level and Kelce having a solid season. The running game for the Chiefs has been pedestrian so far this year, so Pacheco was a wasted pick. The WR room has lived up to its expectations, and Rice was worth the wait. Brashard Smith has not gotten enough volume to be a factor yet.
Las Vegas Raiders
QB Geno Smith: Forecast 60 with range 35 to 80
MVP25 of 0
RB Ashton Jeanty: Forecast 105 with range 90 to 120
MVP25 of 57
WR Jakobi Meyers: Forecast 75 with range 45 to 95
MVP25 of 33
WR Jack Bech: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 95
MVP25 of -86 (-67 in Full Games Played)
TE Brock Bowers: Forecast 100 with range 70 to 120
MVP25 of 25 (Injured)
The Raiders’ offense has hit the skids, but gets TE Brock Bowers back this week, which should help. Geno should rise back up into his low forecast range, and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty should improve some, too, but shows the risk of drafting a rookie RB on a bad offense so early in Fantasy Football. Jakobi Meyers has battled injuries, but poor QB play has also hurt. Rookie Bech has not been a factor.
Los Angeles Chargers
QB Justin Herbert: Forecast 80 with range 55 to 120
MVP25 of 100
RB Omarion Hampton: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 110
MVP25 of 80 (Injured)
RB Najee Harris: Forecast 65 with range 40 to 105
MVP25 of -67 (Injured)
WR Ladd McConkey: Forecast 100 with range 75 to 125
MVP25 of 71
WR Kennan Allen: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
MVP25 of 75
WR Quentin Johnson: Forecast 50 with range 0 to 80
MVP25 of 86
TE Oronde Gadsden: Forecast 25 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of 33
I was higher than consensus on Herbert and Gadsden, but I didn’t expect Gadsden to perform as well as he has over the last few weeks. After a quick start, QJ is coming back to the pack as Ladd McConkey, who started slow, has taken over more volume. Kimani Vidal is holding down the RB1 spot until Hampton returns to action later this season. Keenan Allen also started fast but has slowed down to where he was expected to be this season.
Los Angeles Rams
QB Matthew Stafford: Forecast 60 with range 15 to 90
MVP25 of 100
RB Kyren Williams: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 140
MVP25 of 100
WR Puka Nacua: Forecast 120 with range 100 to 135
MVP25 of 150
WR Davante Adams: Forecast 90 with range 75 to 105
MVP25 of 100
TE Terrance Ferguson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of 0 (100 in Full Games Played)
I bet on the upper range of the Stafford forecast because he was going so late in drafts, and that has paid off. I added him as my QB2, but I have started him in half of the games so far, with success. Williams, Nacua, and Adams have all been terrific this season. The rookie TE Ferguson has yet to get the most snaps, but has looked good in a part-time role.
Miami Dolphins
QB: Tua Tagovailoa: Forecast 85 with range 45 to 105
MVP25 of 50
RB De’Von Achane: Forecast 125 with range 90 to 140
MVP25 of 137
WR Tyreek Hill: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 130
MVP25 of 75 (Injured)
WR Jaylen Waddle: Forecast 80 with range 35 to 100
MVP25 of 66
TE Darren Waller: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 70
MVP25 of 25 (Injured)
Tua has been inconsistent, which is why his forecast included a wide range of outcomes. Achane has lived up to his first-round rating and has been a valuable asset, even in Tua’s subpar games. Waddle’s value has risen since Tyreek’s injury, with his post-Cheetah MVP Index at a robust 100. Waller was a free square and paid off until his injury.
Minnesota Vikings
QV JJ McCarthy: Forecast 75 with range 40 to 90
MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
RB Aaron Jones: Forecast 85 with range 70 to 105
MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
RB Jordan Mason: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 80
MVP25 of 57
WR Justin Jefferson: Forecast 120 with range 90 to 135
MVP25 of 114
WR Jordan Addison: Forecast 65 with range 50 to 85
MVP25 of 125
TE TJ Hockenson: Forecast 65 with range 30 to 100
MVP25 of -14
McCarthy returns to action this week, and this offense sure could use a boost. The rushing game has been uninspiring, with Jones and Mason having some strong efforts, but they have shown inconsistency in an offense that has faced one injury after another. Jefferson and Addison are both solid starts, but Hockenson has been a no-show so far.
New England Patriots
QB Drake Maye: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 125
RB TreVeyon Henderson: Forecast 80 with range 55 to 95
MVP25 of -12
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 95
MVP25 of 12
WR Stefon Diggs: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 125
MVP25 of 75
WR Kyle Williams: Forecast 60 with range 10 to 80
MVP25 of -100
TE Hunter Henry: Forecast 30 with range 10 to 60
MVP25 of 37
Drake Maye has been excellent so far this season. My forecast exceeded the consensus, so I am being rewarded, even though it was initially way too low. Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the top threat in the passing game during the second quarter of the Fantasy Football season, but Diggs is also holding solid value. Hunter Henry is a TD-dependent TE as expected.
New Orleans Saints
QB Spencer Rattler: Forecast 50 with range 0 to 80
MVP25 of 0
RB Alvin Kamara: Forecast 100 with range 65 to 120
MVP25 of 37
WR Chris Olave: Forecast 100 with range 70 to 120
MVP25 of 100
WR Rashid Sheheed: Forecast 40 with range 20 to 75
MVP25 of 50
TE Juwan Johnson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of 37
The Spencer Rattler experiment has ended, and it’s a mystery what this offense might look like with rookie QB Tyler Shough. Kamara is no longer an automatic start for the first time in his career, and I would suggest being cautious until we see how Shough plays in this offense. Olave has been a target hog, with Shaheed and Johnson being right on target with their forecasts as well.
New York Giants
QB Russel Wilson: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 75
MVP25 of 33 (Benched)
QB Jaxson Dart: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 70
MVP25 of 120
RB Cam Skattebo: Forecast 60 with range 20 to 80
MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
RB Tyrone Tracy: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 80
MVP25 of 0
WR Malik Nabers: Forecast 125 with range 80 to 140
MVP25 of 25 (Injured)
WR Wan’ Dale Robinson: Forecast 40 with range 0 to 60
MVP25 of 50
TE Theo Johnson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of 12
The Giants’ offense really took off when Jaxson Dart took over at QB, but the injury to Skattebo might slow this offense down a little the rest of the season. Tracy should be able to meet his forecasted range now that he is the lead RB again. Imagine how great this offense might be next season with Skattebo and Nabers back. Robinson and Johnson should exceed their forecasts with the injuries to other playmakers.
New York Jets
QB Justin Fields: Forecast 75 with range 60 to 95
MVP25 of 57
RB Breece Hall: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 130
MVP25 of 62
WR Garret Wilson: Forecast 95 with range 50 to 110
MVP25 of 100
TE Mason Taylor: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of 0
It’s been a wild ride playing the Jets in Fantasy Football this season. I was significantly higher than the consensus on Fields, Hall, and Wilson, which paid off many weeks and led to the need for Pepto Bismol on other weeks. Fields seems to get blamed for everything wrong in NYC, but bounced back to have a great game last week. Hall and Wilson could be even better with steadier play from Fields. Taylor has shown some solid potential and should improve by the time of the Fantasy Football playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: Forecast 110 with range 95 to 140
MVP25 of 125
RB Saquon Barkley: Forecast 110 with range 65 to 130
MVP25 of 75
WR AJ Brown: Forecast 115 with range 70 to 135
MVP25 of 43
WR DeVonta Smith: Forecast 85 with range 50 to 105
MVP25 of 50
TE Dallas Goedert: Forecast 40 with range 20 to 70
MVP25 of 86
In real football, the Eagles have been an intriguing soap opera every week, with everyone seemingly unhappy with how they are being used. In Fantasy Football, Hurts has been a beast as expected, while Saquon and AJB got off to slow starts. Smith continues to have his spiky weeks, and Goedert has exceeded my lofty expectations, which were higher than consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Aaron Rodgers: Forecast 50 with range 0 to 100
MVP25 of 86
RB Kaleb Johnson: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 100
MVP25 of -100
RB Jaylen Warren: Forecast 55 with range 35 to 70
MVP25 of 67
WR DK Metcalf: Forecast 80 with range 65 to 100
MVP25 of 100
WR Calvin Austin: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 60
MVP25 of 0
TE Johnu Smith: Forecast 60 with range 20 to 115
MVP25 of 0
TE Pat Freiermuth: Forecast 30 with range 15 to 50
MVP25 of -28
The Rodgers experiment has been a big success, while rookie RB Johnson has found his home in the coach’s doghouse permanently. Warren has been right in the expected range, and I was slightly above consensus on him, so I am being rewarded for investing in both Warren and Johnson. DK has been dominating targets as expected, and Austin is behind his expected pace due to injuries. The use of four different TEs has watered down the value of Smith and Muth as expected.
San Francisco 49ers
QB Brock Purdy: Forecast 80 with range 70 to 100
MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
RB Christian McCaffrey: Forecast 110 with range 60 to 130
MVP25 of 175
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Forecast 95 with range 60 with 110
MVP25 of 0 (Injured List)
WR Jauan Jennings: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
MVP25 of -17 (Injured)
WR Ricky Pearsall: Forecast 45 with range 0 to 80
MVP25 of 50 (Injured)
TE George Kittle: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 120
MVP25 of 33 (Injured)
This year has been a challenging one for injuries in the SF offense, but CMC, the player everyone feared could get hurt, has remained healthy and been heavily utilized. CMC has exceeded high expectations, and I wish I had the guts to pull the trigger at his value in drafts more often this season. Everyone else has earned an incomplete grade at the halfway point of the season due to injuries.
Seattle Seahawks
QB Sam Darnold: Forecast 70 with range 40 to 100
MVP25 of 71
RB Kenneth Walker: Forecast 100 with range 70 to 120
MVP25 of 29
RB Zach Charbonnet: Forecast 90 with range 60 to 110
MVP25 of 33
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Forecast 100 with range 75 to 130
MVP25 of 157
WR Cooper Kupp: Forecast 80 with range 65 to 120
MVP25 of 14
TE Elijah Arroyo: Forecast 20 with range 0 to 40
MVP25 of -67
Darnold has been right on in his forecasted range, and since he was a cheap option as a QB,2 I am being rewarded for choosing him. The RB situation has been even more of a split than feared, and investments in both RBs have not paid off. JSN has been even more of a target hog than expected, and Kupp is starting to show his age and could lose volume to the rookie Troy Horton. AJ Barner has been a pleasant surprise at TE, and the rookie Arroyo has shown flashes when utilized.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield: Forecast 100 with range 60 to 130
MVP25 of 87
RB Bucky Irving: Forecast 105 with range 80 to 120
MVP25 of 125 (Injured)
RB Rachaad White: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 100
MVP25 of 25
WR Mike Evans: Forecast 100 with range 65 to 120
MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
WR Chris Godwin: Forecast 90 with range 60 to 120
MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Emeka Egbuka: Forecast 70 with range 40 to 110
MVP25 of 87
TE Cade Otton: Forecast 15 with range 0 to 40
MVP25 of 0
His horrible game last week dropped Mayfield’s rating below 100 for the first time in two seasons, and I would expect it to rise back above 100 again. The loss of Bucky Irving and their veteran WRs hasn’t slowed this offense down except for one had game last week. I was way above consensus on Egbuka, and he should return from the bye week ready to dominate targets in this offense. Otton has stepped up his game with the loss of the other WRs.
Tennessee Titans
QB Cam Ward: Forecast 60 with range 20 to 75
MVP25 of -25
RB Tony Pollard: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 85
MVP25 of 50
RB Tyjae Spears: Forecast 50 with range 30 to 80
MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Calvin Ridley: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 85
MVP25 of -17 (Injured)
WR Elic Ayomanor: Forecast 55 with range 30 to 75
MVP25 of -12
TE Chig Okonkwo: Forecast 15 with range 0 to 50
MVP25 of -12
This offense has been a colossal disappointment this year, and I had very low expectations for it. Ward has reminded me of Bryce Young’s rookie season. Spears could take over from Pollard in the second half of the season. Ayomanor has shown flashes, but his fellow rookie WR Chimere Dike might be the best WR on the roster right now. Ridley receives an incomplete grade due to injuries, and Chiggy is right where I expected him to be. Rookie TE Gunnar Helm is a player to keep an eye on late in the season.
Washington Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels: Forecast 115 with range 85 to 130
MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
RB Austin Ekeler: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 85
MVP25 of -50 (Injured)
RB Jacory Croskey Merrit: Forecast 35 with range 0 to 60
MVP25 of 12
WR Terry McLaurin: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 100
MVP25 of 25 (Injured)
WR Deebo Samuel: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 110
MVP25 of 71
TE Zach Ertz: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 70
MVP25 of 37
The Commanders have seen more than their fair share of injuries this season, and it has impacted the grades of many players. JCM was looking like he could emerge after Ekeler’s season-ending injury, but is now caught in a three-way split of volume. Deebo has shown his spiky weeks as usual, and McLaurin has never been healthy enough to perform correctly in this offense. Ertz has an MVP Index of 60 with Daniels at QB and 0 with Marcus Mariota.
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