The Minnesota Vikings roll into Week 9 sitting at 3–4, and to be honest, the last two weeks have been rough. The offense has sputtered, the defense has bent more than it should, and the injury bug hasn’t done this team any favors. But this week brings a few big storylines: JJ McCarthy is finally back under center after missing five games, Aaron Jones gets his second game back from injury, and it sounds like there’s a chance Andrew Van Ginkel suits up today. Let’s break down what that all means.

Offensive Outlook

JJ McCarthy is back, but expectations should be tempered. This is the sophomore’s first game back from his injury since Week 2. It’s been six-weeks, including the bye, and it comes against a Detroit defense that ranks top-5 in sacks. Minnesota’s offensive line is hanging on by a thread. Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw are both banged up, and the unit already ranks fourth in the league in sacks allowed. Both tackles should be good to go, but I still think it could be a long day for the kid.

Aaron Jones could be a bright spot in the offense this week if he is fully back to form. His presence alone changes the dynamic for JJ McCarthy. He’s reliable in pass pro, great for check-downs, and always one play away from breaking one to the house. Expect him to be heavily involved early as McCarthy shakes off the rust.

In the passing game, Justin Jefferson continues to do Justin Jefferson things. Fifth in the league in receiving yards, and still drawing double teams that open things up for others. Remember, you don’t sit your studs. Jets is a go this week, regardless of having to face a tough secondary.

Jordan Addison, meanwhile, has been electric. He’s had two 110+ yard games since coming back from his 3 game suspension. Addison has also scored two touchdowns in his four appearances. I’m calling it now: Addison finds the end zone again this week. Could be Minnesota’s lone Touchdown.

As for TJ Hockenson, it’s been a frustrating run. With Josh Oliver and CJ Ham both out, expect Hockenson to spend more time blocking than breaking free. Fade him in DFS and season-long unless you’re desperate.

And if you’re still hoping for Jordan Mason numbers to pop again, tread lightly. The Aaron Jones return sends him straight back to third-down purgatory. I’d be benching him this week.

Offensive Line Concerns

Let’s not sugarcoat it, this line has been a concern all season.

Injuries everywhere, depth stretched thin, and the Lions’ front is hungry. Remember, Detroit has the fifth-most sacks in the NFL, and that could climb after Sunday. With Minnesota’s tackles hurting/struggling and extra blockers unavailable, McCarthy could spend as much time dodging rushers as throwing passes. Expect a heavy dose of quick hitters, screens, and Jones dump-offs just to stay afloat.

Defense/IDP Notes

Defensively, this team faces issues, most definitely against the “run and aggressive down-field passing attacks.”  This allows for a ton of tackles on the field. If you play in IDP Leagues, then you know tackles are king. Despite the record, this defense has quietly produced for IDP players. And if Andrew Van Ginkel is finally back, it’s a major boost for this team and for IDP Players alike. His blitz presence completely changes the tone of this front seven. Blake Cashman being back and healthy has been very helpful for this defense. Ivan Pace was absolutely atrocious filling in for Blake while he was out. But now that the band is back together, let’s hop into some IDP Plays this week.

IDP Start ‘em:

  • Andrew Van Ginkel (DL/LB) – If he’s active, you ABSOLUTELY play him. He’s due for a Sack or interception potential every week. Last season we saw him get a couple Pick 6s.
  • Blake Cashman (LB) – This man is a stud. He’s an automatic start week to week. Slow start when getting 11 total tackles last week.
  • Harrison Smith (DB) – The vet is still a tackling machine and a weekly must-start in IDP formats. He had the most tackles on the tw

IDP Upside plays:

  • Jonathan Greenard (DL, LB) – Only 2 sacks on the year, but he’s been disruptive and gets into the backfield fairly easily. He’s due for a breakout.
  • Isaiah Rodgers (DB) – The definition of boom-or-bust. Already has two pick-sixes (and nearly a third that got called back). Always has that game-changing upside. He

Detroit’s offense is third in the NFL with an average of 30.7 points per game, and they’ve dominated this matchup in recent years. The Lions are 6-4 vs. Minnesota over the last five years and 9-0 against the spread in their last nine meetings. It’s a tall order for this Vikings defense to slow them down, which means we could be in for an IDP Feast.

The Bet Slip

My Week 9 Parlay (+1100)

  • Detroit Alternate Spread –9.5 (-105)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-190)
  • Jared Goff 2+ Passing TDs (-179)
  • Jordan Addison Anytime TD (+225)

Breakdown:

  • Leg #1 – The actual line sits at –8.5 for Detroit, but I’m comfortable going bigger. My numbers say they cover easily. History shows they should cover the spread by double digits, as they did so the last three games against the Vikings. History also shows that the Lions have covered the spread the last 3 meetings with Minnesota. This is why I chose the alternate spread of -9.5 to increase the payout.
  • Leg #2 – Gibbs has 6 TDs in his last 7 appearances and Minnesota’s defense just got torched by Kimani Vidal last week. Brian Flores’ run defense allowed Vidal to go over 100 yards and score a touchdown. This is why I chose Gibbs anytime Touchdown. That, along with the prediction of Detroit scoring a bunch. If you’re feeling spicy, take Gibbs 2+ TDs and bump it to increase the payout significantly.
  • Leg #3 – I took Goff for 2+ Passing Touchdowns. This feels like one of the safest legs, especially with how leaky that Vikings secondary has looked. Goff has cleared that mark in 4 of 7 games, and we could see him putting up two touchdowns again this week. We know how well Goff does indoors.
  • Leg #4 – Addison’s Anytime Touchdown seems like it could be the highest-risk of this Parlay, high-reward play. Detroit tends to give up scores to the WR2, and Addison fits that bill perfectly. Drop this leg if you want to play it safe — the three-leg version drops to +232. But hey, no risk, no reward.

    If you want to take a risk on a 5th Leg, take a shot on Amon-Ra St. Brown to score an Anytime Touchdown. I did predict two scores through the air for Jared Goff so this isn’t out of the question.

    Now let’s get to my final prediction for the Vikings Week 9.

Final Prediction

Vegas has the over/under at 48.5, and I’m staying away from it. With how I’m predicting things, the total points for the game will be between 48 and 50. That is way too close to be jumping on the over/under bet.

Detroit’s offense is humming. I one hundred percent expect 31+ points out of the Lions this week. Two scores through the air, two on the ground and maybe a field goal from Jake Bates for good measure. I fully expect Jahmyr Gibbs to score a touchdown this week, hence my anytime touchdown bet. Also expecting Jared Goff to have a good day as well.

On the other side of things, Minnesota is going to do one thing or the other. Either they, score two touchdowns and put up a field goal, or the offense stalls out and Reichard is stuck kicking field goals to keep us in the game. Could see him going for four field goals and Addison scoring the lone touchdown through the air. I really don’t see them cracking 20 this week.

Final Score:
Lions 31 Vikings 17

The Vikings have a brutal stretch of games ahead, and I’ll be breaking that down in the next article as we stack their upcoming schedule against AI projections. For now, buckle up because I believe it’s gonna be a long day in Detroit for Kevin O’Connell and crew.

Check out the full Episode of The Black & Blue Fantasy Football Preview Show for week 9 where we cover all 4 teams from the best division in the NFL!