Back again for another round-up and preview for 5 teams around the NBA. This is our last week featuring 4 of our teams (remember: Lakers stay, and we rotate 4 until we come full circle), and it sadly comes at a moment where the league isn’t looking collectively healthy, fast or ready to take the crown from OKC. The background might give you some idea about what I mean, but the breakdown will give you exactly what we have witnessed (and may be in for).

Backstory: On the day we posted our piece last week, our teams went 3-1 (Warriors did not play) and for some odd reason – everyone left. I mean, it was like going on a good run at the gym, you got a few wins in, and all of a sudden the gym went empty, early. After that, we had a bunch of DNPs and players out injured/ Key players we mentioned in our last post all stepped up or out, no in between. Honestly, the records these teams have now, mostly make little to no sense. Just pretend that, after that great run, you then had to play with 4 scrubs and run 4 more wins to satisfy your gym run for the evening.

Breakdown:

Warriors (6 -5)

Key Players: Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, Quinten Post, Draymond Green

Pause. That’s the best way I can describe what I feel from this team, as it is. The energy, the progress, the rise/fall just all looks like it’s in one big holding pattern hovering above SFO. The Steph injury/DNP has hurt the team in overall performance, but has allowed the emergence (maybe, blossoming?) of Rookie Wil Richard.

Both blessing and curse, this type of emergence stands, as the Warriors – mainly under Kerr – typically leave such booming moments up to serendipity, and fail to strike when the iron is hot. It’s great that Richard is finding his way, but he only needs to look over his shoulder to Brandon Podziemski to see what could be his fate if he doesn’t find a mentor and a way to make himself a steady player… and soon.

When the Dubs have “worthy” opponents (teams not wholly injured), they don’t have the firepower or depth to keep up. And before you say “it’s early in the season” or “wait till they get Steph back” – again, that’s the problem. This team needs a number 3 and 4, or at least a sense of a bench that can pour on leads or protect them. Week 3, although kind (1 – 2), exposed this team’s fatal flaw in a front-loaded offense, and it looks to get worse before it gets better.

Celtics – (5- 6)

Key Players: Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Neemias Queta

Bad on paper, great in potential. This might be my rock to die on, but this team might play itself into belief. I believe this team will win more than expected games, I believe they will be rewarded for their effort every game and I believe in what this organization is trying to do. It just doesn’t pan out more than I want, and on paper, the team operates like a lottery team.

What’s the saying? Proof is in the pudding. All stats are down:

PPG – 24thRPG – 22nd, APG, a huge factor in the success the last 2 years, 28th, FG% – 23rd

The team has the will, just not the skill. The key here is: when the will, exceeds the skill of the opposing team, the skill of the Cs needs to not shoot itself (almost literally) in the foot. This team needs to learn how to be more efficient with its shots. Leads and games have been lost off of that one thing. As this team gets healthier, more used to playing together, develops more of an idea of its key starters (hoping, Queta, definitely Simons) and their type of contribution needed, that the following will happen: assists will go up, signaling that the players are hitting off of set up shots, better on the break and so will the FG%, further signaling a more efficient team.

Fantasy Advice: The team is chock full of DFS players you could find for cheap (Minott, Queta, Tillman 3s) , and maybe available in most fantasy leagues. To be frank, line bets on or against this team are a mess, so I’d steer clear of them.

Outcome: Sub-.500 by 2 games; This team will most likely get hot around January, leading to the All-Star break. Hopefully no moves will be made, Tatum will stay on IR and they’ll miss the playoffs. Hope would kill the building direction of this team.

Knicks – (6 – 2)

Key Players: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby

Inflation is an American staple and the Knicks might be living off of it. There are major pros and cons to this team, but none of it makes any sense or dollars. This team can score (120 PPG), it can rebound well (7th in league) – which lean towards the 2nd chance points this team thrives on. But this team is in the lower third of the league in percentage and, again, goes through these long droughts of scoring that can make you wonder “which team sees April?”

Fantasy Advice: The line bets for this team will typically favor the opponents, but the spread will be wider at home. If you like the easier action, bet while they’re on the road. The starting 5 are full of prop bets, especially in the Rebounding category. If you don’t have one of the 7 on your fantasy squads, find a way. When available these guys can make your win for the day or week. Just don’t bet on Brunson FTs.

Outcome: well over .500, 2nd in East. I am disappointed to say – this is not a team that will see the ECF. If things play out as they have (Brunson’s lack of seeing the FT line, turnovers, poor performances against good opponents), then this team is a glass cannon waiting to shatter. Something has to stick – either the team has to score more off of misses and rebounds, or they need to make more of the shots they get. They’re shooting the 3 more (shout-out to Monica McNutt for that fact), and are improved on the makes but…

Lakers – (8 -3)

Key Players: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James

The Lakers are a surprising 5 games above .500 given the litany of injuries that have plagued them this season. It’s almost as if the Lakers are now experiencing what much of the league has in recent years: they’re rotating their big named players and their performances to propel the team to wins. Key difference? Defense. Plain and simple.

The improvement from last year’s squad (on top of trading and ailing again, playing again Davis) is the team’s dedication to the defensive end. When dialed in, this team thrives, and turns defense into offense (19.1 Points off turnovers, 4th in league). When not… well then it turns into the game in Atlanta.

Fantasy Advice: Rebounds, steals and spread appeal. Don’t bet on this team on the back-to-back games. Lakers start flat in those games, and can mess up just about any parlay without Luka’s name on it. The team isn’t shooting too much better, particularly from the field, so the next est place is the defense and rebounding. The only true investments on this team are Luka and AR. AR is health/scheme dependent. When they’re rolling though, God save the opposing fantasy lineup.

Outcome: over.500, 4th West. This team is playoff bound, but they’re one trade-that-the-league-will-block-or-veto away from getting them a ring in Luka’s hands. After the Nico Harrison news today, it’s apparent that something like that will not happen again for some time… like, say, when New Orleans traded Anthony Davis to the Lakers.

Heat (7 – 4)

Key Players: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kalil’l Ware, Bam Adebayo,

Best for last. That’s what we have here. By no means are the Heat the best team here. They were playing one of the best teams by record from last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers, at the time I wanted to post this piece. I am ecstatic that I waited. We were gifted a great ending to a very tight basketball game, which also reflects how Miami was able to attain its winning record through 11 games this season.

The team plays fast, it plays to get open shots, throws everything it can at the opposing team to stay in games, and then wins off of pure execution down the stretch. Again, I think the kitchen sink/blitzkrieg/pasta on the wall approach isn’t the formula for winning a championship, and it’s not exactly conducive to developing the likes of Ware, Jaquez, and so on, but its doing 2 things traditionalists like myself don’t consider:Players are getting more chances to shoot (91.6FGA up from 87 last season), the energy is up. (Pace at 106.58, up from 97.08 last seaaon) If the Heat continue to see success this way, they could lead the Southeast Division and make the playoffs.

Fantasy Advice: Over the next few weeks, the spread will be your friend. The schedule has lined up a good batch to beat on Miami, and Miami will keep a bunch of those games close. If you see a 6+, take it. Not much in the way of players – there’s no consistency to give you a gem (even with Ware setting a personal best in boards last night.)

Outlook: .500 record with a play-in, capped at 5th in the East.