by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system utilizes four different statistical tools to obtain a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season, as well as the last two seasons, but each week is weighted heavily in favor of the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week ten.
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MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.
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MVP25 Index
Now that we have enough weeks into the season, we can start examining the MVP Index for the current season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, while in the regular MVP Index, we only count the full games played. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide on whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will log a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season.
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Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to treat outlier data in a way that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season’s data is weighted more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances.
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Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player, helping with Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, judging each QB against each other, using the same point value, is what is most important. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
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Top 15 at QB
- Lamar Jackson has separated himself from the pack at the top of the ratings at QB.
- Josh Allen- His last ten-game spike week rating is the lowest of the top 4
- Patrick Mahomes- Needs a bounce-back game to get back in the division race
- Baker Mayfield (+1) is doing the same thing this year with rookies he did with cagey vets last year
- Jalen Hurts (-1) Rushing points have kept him in the Top 5
- Jaxson Dart- Need him back from concussion protocol soon
- Brock Purdy (+4) Close ratings between QB6 and QB10 right now
- Drake Maye (+1) is an MVP candidate in real football, and a rising Fantasy star too
- Bo Nix (-2). Is the offensive inconsistency his fault?
- Jared Goff (+5) – The coach calling the plays helped Goff return to playing his best ball.
- Justin Herbert (-1). Injuries to the offensive line have hurt this offense
- Matthew Stafford (+3) should be getting more attention as a potential MVP candidate
- Dak Prescott- Defensive woes mean Dak needs to score 35 points to win
- Sam Darnold (-2) has the occasional lapse of judgment that reminds us how he got to SEA
- Caleb Williams (NEW) This offense is starting to get very good.
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Top 30 at RB
- Christian McCaffrey- First in three indexes and a close second in the fourth
- De’Von Achane (+2) Amazing results playing with an inconsistent QB
- Jonathon Taylor- Fantasy Managers will miss him during his bye week
- Bijan Robinson (-2), Offensive Coordinator, chooses not to play him in goal-line situations
- Jahmyr Gibbs- Has a tier all to himself between the Top 4 and the rest right now
- Kyren Williams (+2) One of the most disrespected RBs in Fantasy Football
- Josh Jacobs- Offense was very offensive on MNF, and he still scored 19 PPR points
- Bucky Irving (+1). His injury status is one of the big mysteries in Fantasy Football this year
- Saquon Barkley (-3) Saquon out in space can still do magical things
- James Cook- Lack of involvement in the passing game keeps him from rising
- Breece Hall- Would have looked great in Chiefs colors
- Derrick Henry- No longer elite every week, but still Top 12
- Travis Etienne (+3) Back-to-back 15+ point games since returning from bye
- David Montgomery- Five of nine games in double figures this season
- D’Andre Swift (-2) has been in double digits in all but one game this season
- Javonte Williams (-1). Two of his worst games of the season came in the last four before the bye
- Rico Dowdle (+1) has taken over as the true RB1 for the Panthers
- Ashton Jeanty (+1) has had a solid rookie season, just not a first-round pick in fantasy season
- Chase Brown (-2) MVP Index of 100 with Flacco or Burrow at QB, 50 with Browning
- Quinshon Judkins (+1) could be the best rookie RB in the NFL this season
- RJ Harvey (-1) Injury to Dobbins opens the door for more volume
- Aaron Jones (+3) has been fed the amount of volume needed to be a starting RB in Fantasy
- Rachad White- Has done a good job in relief, but he ain’t Bucky
- Alvin Kamara (-2) Five double-digit games, but four games with six or fewer points
- Jaylen Warren (+1) Solid double-digit point guy, but lacks explosive upside
- JK Dobbins (+2) Injury could put him on the shelf for a while
- Ken Walker- Volume split makes him a precarious start in Fantasy Football
- Chuba Hubbard (-4) lost his starting job and will fall off this list soon
- Woody Marks (NEW) could be the second-best rookie RB this season
- Jordan Mason (-1) Return of Jones should drop him off this list soon.
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Top 35 at WR
- Puka Nacua (+1) Tie breaker with ARSB is by just 4/10ths of a point
- Amon Ra St Brown (-1) Four games over 20 points and seven over 15 this year
- Cee Dee Lamb (+1). His worst full game this year was 14 PPR points
- Ja’Marr Chase (-1) MVP Index of 175 with Flacco at QB, 60 with everyone else at QB
- Davante Adams- Showing amazing consistency from week to week
- Rashee Rice- Has averaged 22 PPR points since coming back from suspension
- Emeka Egbuka (+4) The best rookie WR this season, and it’s not even close
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Has almost doubled his MVP Index versus his career best
- Drake London- WR5 in MVP Index for just this season
- Justin Jefferson (-3) Only one game over 20 PPR points all season
- Nico Collins (+4) had his best game of the year with Davis Mills at QB
- Ladd McConkey (+10) Three games with 20 or more PPR points in last five starts
- DeVonta Smith (+7) has outscored his fellow WR in 7 games this season
- Keenan Allen (-2) Great to see him get the career record for Chargers pass catchers at home
- Garret Wilson’s (-5) Injury will put him on the shelf for several weeks
- George Pickens (-3) MVP Index of 80 in games Lamb plays, 150 without Lamb
- Stefon Diggs (+4) Up eight spots in the last 2 weeks
- Chris Olave (+7). Four of his first ten games over 15 PPR points
- Michael Pittman (-4) Six games over 15 PPR points, but two games with four or fewer points
- Deebo Samuel (-1) Three games over 20 PPR points, but four games under 10
- Jordan Addison (-5) Down 10 spots in the last 2 weeks
- Jaylen Waddle (+2) MVP Index of 100 without Tyreek and 50 with Tyreek
- Brian Thomas Jr- Jaguars WR Room is dealing with lots of injuries right now
- Franklin has outscored Courtland Sutton (-6) in 4 games already
- AJ Brown (-8) Eagles need to check his reading material
- Tee Higgins- MVP Index of 150 with Flacco and 20 with everyone else
- DJ Moore (+1) might be dealing with a worse injury than they are letting us know
- Terry McLaurin (+2) Commanders’ offense has not been the same without him
- DK Metcalf (-2). His current MVP Index of 67 is equal to last year, which was a career low
- Quentin Johnson (-1) MVP Index of 20 since his injury, 12o in first five games
- Rome Odunze (+3) should be a future Top 10 stud at WR
- Zay Flowers- Ravens don’t throw enough to get him in the Top 20
- Chris Godwin- Day to day turned into week to week and then month to month
- Marvin Harrison Jr (-3) MVP Index of 75 with Brissett and 40 with Murray
- Jakobi Meyers- Could emerge as a solid Fantasy WR if Thomas misses time.
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Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride- One and a half tiers to the second-best TE in my Fantasy ratings
- Travis Kelce (+1) Tight battle between TE2-4, significant drop off to the rest
- George Kittle (+5) MVP Index of 100 if you remove his first game back from injury
- Brock Bowers (-2) followed up his best career game with one of his worst
- Tyler Warren (+2) Seven of his first ten career games over 10 PPR points are amazing
- Sam LaPorta (-2.) Will he lose volume with a change in play callers?
- Jake Ferguson (-1) MVP Index of 150 without Lamb in lineup, just 40 with Lamb
- Dallas Goedert (-3) Eagles offensive woes are a mystery, but Goedert stays consistent.
- Mark Andrews (+2) Back-to-back double-digit games for the second time this season
- David Njoku (+2) Splitting TE targets with the rookie has made him TD dependent in Fantasy.
- Dalton Kincaid (+2) has an MVP Index of 100 in his full games played this season.
- Oronde Gadsden (-2) Great news that the injury wasn’t worse
- Johnu Smith (NEW) His Back Class is the only thing keeping him in the Top 15
- Juwan Johnson (NEW) has nice chemistry with the rookie QB
- Harold Fannin Jr- Four of nine games in double digits is a solid start to a career
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