by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, but each week is weighted more heavily toward the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week eleven.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.
MVP25 Index
Now that we have enough weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index just for the current season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Indie, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether they will play a full game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season.
Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula for handling outlier data that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighted more to keep the data up to date for this season’s performances.
Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player for Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than the median for that position, judging each QB against the others with the same point value is what matters most. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
Top 15 at QB
- Josh Allen (+1). Only Otto Graham could challenge him for the top spot of all time now.w
- Lamar Jackson (-1). One bad game doesn’t drop a guy like him far
- Baker Mayfield (+1) Battled head-to-head with Allen
- Patrick Mahomes (-1) Every game is a must-win the rest of the year
- Jalen Hurts- About the only offensive player who isn’t upset about something
- Jaxson Dart- The Giants need him back badly
- Brock Purdy- Returned from injury in top form
- Drake Maye- Emerging as one of the best in the league
- Dak Prescott (+4) had a 4 TD game in prime time
- Jared Goff- Better indoors and in light wind
- Bo Nix (-2) manages to pull a game out when he needs it
- Justin Herbert (-1) Running out of offensive linemen, and it shows
- Matthew Stafford (-1.) Lack of rushing upside caps his fantasy value
- Jordan Love (NEW) Just good enough to be in the mix as a fantasy starter
- Sam Darnold (-1). At least he was still better than JJ in Fantasy points
Top 30 at RB
- Christian McCaffrey-Having a season worthy of pick one in fantasy
- De’Von Achane- Great season on a team with very little to get excited about
- Jonathon Taylor- Comes back from his bye week to help teams with title hopes
- Bijan Robinson- Still a Top 5 RB in Fantasy
- Jahmyr Gibbs- Offense has had some tough weeks this year
- Kyren Williams- Gets in the end zone at a nice rate
- Bucky Irving (+1). Need him back from injury now
- James Cook (+2). His QB is the TD vulture.
- Josh Jacobs (+2) Injury is the only thing that could drop him from the Top 10
- Saquon Barkley (-1) Offense scoring at a much lower rate this season
- Derrick Henry (+1) Still the King!
- Breece Hall (-1) Imagine him on a great offense
- Travis Etienne- Injury to Tuten could keep his volume coming
- Chase Brown (+5) gets the volume needed in the passing game without Perine
- Rico Dowdle (+2) The number one RB on a better-than-average offense
- Javonte Williams- Lost some volume to Malik Davis
- D’Andre Swift (-2) is still solid while losing some volume
- David Montgomery (-4) is having his worst season since moving to the Lions
- Ashton Jeanty (-1) Showing why rookie RBs on a bad team are a high risk
- Ken Walker (+7) suddenly woke up for a big week
- Aaron Jones (+1) Sharing the volume with Mason caps the upside of both
- Quinshon Judkins (-2) Browns offense with Shadeur might be awful
- Alvin Kamara (+1) should get enough volume to be around the Top 20 value
- Rachad White (-1) Tucker showed he was a better option without Bucky
- RJ Harvey (-4) Coach loves to split touches, no matter who is active with him
- Sean Tucker (NEW) Two fantastic games over the last 2 seasons when he got the volume
- TreVeon Henderson (NEW) could emerge as the best of the rookie RBs
- Jaylen Warren (-3) Losing more volume to Gainwell hurts his value
- Chuba Hubbard (-1) is only hanging on due to injuries, dropping others off the chart
- Jordan Mason- Getting just enough volume to be Fantasy viable
Top 35 at WR
- Puka Nacua- Holds down the top spot again
- Amon Ra St Brown- Offense struggles at times outdoors
- Cee Dee Lamb- Was second banana to Pickens on MNF
- Ja’Marr Chase- It wasn’t my spit; it was the one-armed man defense that won’t work.k
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+3) could be in the Top 3 discussion soon
- Davante Adams (-1) Great one-two punch with Puka
- Nico Collins (+4) has been much better with Mills at QB
- Rashee Rice (-2). Too many drops last week cost them the game
- Drake London- Injury concern might drop him off this chart soon
- Emeka Egbuka (-3) The best of the rookie WRs
- Justin Jefferson (-1) Bad QB play has slipped him outside the Top 10
- George Pickens (+4) Big play ability, and teams doubling Lamb is good news for Pickens
- Deebo Samuel (+7) can have those big spike weeks, but also can be inconsistent
- Stefon Diggs (+3) Undisputed WR1 for the Pats
- Garret Wilson- Injury could drop him off this list soon
- Michael Pittman (+3) comes back from the bye week for the stretch run
- Tetairoa McMillan (NEW) Rookie flashed on a day Bryce Young had his first 400-yard game
- Chris Olave- Volume keeps him in the top 20
- Keenan Allen (-5): Starting to lose target share to others, including the rookie TE.
- Jordan Addison (+1) Passing offense limits his upside
- Brian Thomas Jr (+2) Injury could drop him from this list soon
- Ladd McConkey (-10) Chargers needed the bye week to get here
- Tee Higgins (+3) could have a big week with Chase’s suspension
- Jaylen Waddle (-2) QB inconsistency limits his weekly upside
- Courtland Sutton (-1) Losing target share to others
- DeVonta Smith (-13). This offense is a mess
- AJ Brown (-2) The WR Room is full of talent and attitudes
- Terry McLaurin- Should return after the Bye week
- DK Metcalf- Change at QB shouldn’t affect him much
- Rome Odunze (+1) should be rising as the offense starts clicking every week
- Jameson Williams (NEW) Change of play callers has made him fantasy relevant again
- Zay Flowers- Low passing volume offense limits his upside
- Chris Godwin- Should return from injury soon
- Marvin Harrison Jr- Injury is a big concern
- DJ Moore (-8). Others are emerging on that offense ahead of him in target volume
Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride- Posting numbers worthy of RB6 or WR6 production as a TE
- George Kittle (+1) was glad to see Purdy back at QB
- Travis Kelce (-1) The older man is getting it done
- Brock Bowers- Returning closer to his expected spot on this list
- Tyler Warren- Rookies often do better down the stretch after a Bye
- Sam LaPorta- Injury will drop him off this list soon
- Jake Ferguson- Has great chemistry with Dak
- Mark Andrews- Starting to look more like the Andrews we drafted
- Dallas Goedert- A solid option on this offense, but lots of mouths to feed
- Dalton Kincaid (+1) Injury could drop him off this list
- Oronde Gadsden (+1) has found a nice place in a solid offense
- David Njoku (-2) Weakness of the Browns offense could drop him from this list soon
- Juwan Johnson (+1) Without Shaheed, he is now the 3rd best option on this offense
- Dalton Schultz (NEW) could rise to the top 10 this season
- AJ Barner (NEW) When he gets volume, he is solid
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