“I’m Thankful”

There we were, the whole family. Aunts, uncles, grandma, and the legendary Thanksgiving spread she put on every year. It was “say what you’re thankful for” time. “Family.” “Friends.” “Good health.” Solid answers, nothing wrong with any of them.

Then it got to my cousin. And you could tell by the way he squared up his shoulders that he meant this from the soul.

“I’m thankful for Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning having dominant seasons.”

A few of us just nodded, because we knew EXACTLY what he meant. That moment has stuck with me ever since. The honesty, the confidence, and honestly… the accuracy. He wasn’t wrong.

And now? It’s our turn to reflect. To appreciate the players who dragged us through the bye-week deserts, the injury gauntlets, the chaos. These are the same dudes we should be locking into our lineups with zero hesitation. This is not tinkering season. Playoffs are on the doorstep, and one little tweak can snowball into a loss… then two… and suddenly you’re in a full free fall at the exact wrong time of year.

Lock in. Trust the horses that brought you here. Make the moves now that future-you will look back on and say, in true Marshawn fashion:

“I’m thankful.”

*This is in reference to FantasyPros Week to Week Rankings & using a platform that allows dual designation*

⚡ Green Light – DL: Josh Hines-Allen vs.
(Season Rank: DL37 through Week 12)

This is a player many of us had plugged into our starting lineups to kick the season off… and then he hit us with a really, really rough start. At this point in the season, a lot of us would be justified in avoiding him altogether.

However, over the last three weeks, he’s been producing at about a DL15 level. No, the Titans haven’t given up a ton of tackles to opposing DLs, but that’s not the appeal here. The juicy part of this matchup is that Cam Ward has been sacked more than any QB in the NFL so far this season. This is that matchup that will have you coming back for seconds.

Snap Share (Last 3 Weeks): 81% → 79% → 85%

Bottom Line: The start was ugly, but he’s finding his rhythm at the right time, and this matchup gives him a clear path to impact plays. If he’s on your roster, this week he can sit at the grown-ups table.

⚡ Green Light – LB: Germaine Pratt vs.
(Season Rank: LB25 through Week 12)

This is why we play IDP — players like Mr. Pratt coming on strong late in the season, right when we need that playoff push. He most likely didn’t cost you much, and yet here he is absolutely balling out. Already sitting at LB25 on the year, and over the last three weeks he’s been our overall LB3.

If that wasn’t enough, the Texans are giving up the 2nd-most tackles in the league to the linebacker position. And with the Colts finding their stride as a whole, Pratt is no exception — he’s heating up at the perfect time.

Snap Share (Last 3 Weeks): 92% → 87% → 86%

Bottom Line: He’s producing, the matchup is juicy, and the playoff runway is wide open. If Pratt is on your roster, he shouldn’t be anywhere but locked into your lineup like that sweet sweet slice of Pumpkin Pie.

⚡ Green Light – DB: Joshua Metellus vs.
(Season Rank: DB30 through Week 12)

Metellus has had a bit of an up-and-down season, but lately his numbers are speaking loud and clear. Over the last two weeks, he’s stacked 22 combined tackles, and that’s exactly the kind of consistency we want to lean on right now.

Adding another layer to this matchup: the Seahawks have been very friendly when it comes to giving up tackles to opposing secondaries. With the way Metellus is trending, I look for his recent stride to get a nice little bonus boost in this matchup.

Snap Share (Last 3 Weeks): 100% → 100% → 83%

Bottom Line: He’s heating up, the opp is favorable, and the floor feels rock solid heading into Thanksgiving week. The only matchup that might be better is getting to lineup against your little cousin during the backyard Turkey Bowl.

🛑 Pump the Brakes – DL: Josh Sweat vs.
(Season Rank: DL9 through Week 12)

I’m sure if he’s on your roster, you’ve been thrilled with the season overall. But let’s take a quick reality check: by my scoring, I’m only seeing five games over 10 points, and these last two outings have been the kind you avoid making eye contact with.

One of the weeks that vaulted him up the rankings came off a FF, sack, and FR which is a great but not something we can rely on repeating, especially not this late in the year. And to make things trickier, the Buccaneers are one of the stingiest teams in the league when it comes to giving up tackles to opposing defensive linemen.

Snap Share (Last 3 Weeks): 53% → 45% → 68%

Bottom Line: Sweat has name value and a strong season-long rank, but the recent trend and matchup don’t inspire confidence. Keep Sweat at home, we will put together a to-go plate for him.

🛑 Pump the Brakes – LB: Foye Oluokun vs.
(Season Rank: LB9 through Week 12)

One of the true GOATs in IDP over the last few years — no debate there. But we’re not here for career résumés. We’re here for what’s happening right now. And to start the season, Foye was on an absolute tear, doing exactly what we expect him to do.

But while he hasn’t fallen off a cliff, he has cooled off. Over the last three weeks, he’s been LB23, which is not the direction you want to be trending heading into must-win territory. Add in the fact that the Titans are near the bottom of the league in tackles allowed to LB, and suddenly this matchup loses a lot of shine.

Snap Share (Last 3 Weeks): 100% → 100% → 100%

Bottom Line: You look forward to your aunt’s signature side dish every Thanksgiving, and then this year she switched up the recipe and suddenly you’re questioning every life choice you’ve made to this point. That’s the vibe here — not terrible, but definitely not what you signed up for.

🛑 Pump the Brakes – DB: Geno Stone vs.
(Season Rank: DB4 through Week 12)

He’s having a year, no argument there. I’m not here to take that away. But let’s not chase points, because last week was a perfect example of why that’s dangerous. One pick-six on top of his highest tackle output of the season shot him all the way up to DB4.

Before that week? He was sitting at DB19, which is still very good, but not exactly league winning. And looking ahead, the Ravens are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to giving up tackles to opposing safeties, so this matchup isn’t exactly a boost either.

Snap Share (Last 3 Weeks): 99% → 100% → 97%

Bottom Line: Yes, he’s capable of huge games and you could absolutely roll him out again. Remember that one year we swapped stuffing for mac-and-cheese? Worked out once, but it’s a hard pass from here on.

Connect with Me
Want to talk more IDP, bounce around trade ideas, or just chat fantasy football? You can find me here:

X (Twitter): @IDPelton
Discord: MkPelton52
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Come hang out, share your takes, and let’s keep building those championship rosters together!

References
– Tackles Allowed by Team/Position: PFF – Macri
– Rankings: FantasyPros Week-to-Week Leaders
– Snap %: https://www.footballguys.com/
– QB Sacks: https://www.statmuse.com/