by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
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Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, with each week weighted more heavily toward the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week twelve.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.
MVP25 Index
Now that we have enough weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index just for the current season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season.
Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula for handling outlier data that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighted more to keep the data up to date for this season’s performances.
Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player for Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than the median for that position, judging each QB against the others with the same point value is what matters most. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
Top 15 at QB
- Josh Allen- Despite a lousy game, he is in his own tier at the top
- Jalen Hurts (+3) bounced back from two below-average games
- Jaxson Dart (+3). Backup did well last week, but they need him back
- Lamar Jackson (-2) Back-to-back lousy games are proof that the toe injury is getting worse
- Patrick Mahomes (-1) Last of the second-tier guys and should shine in another holiday game
- Baker Mayfield (-3) Injury concern could drop him from this list
- Dak Prescott (+2) led a massive comeback in the real NFL and helped Fantasy teams win, too
- Drake Maye- Last of the third-tier guys
- Jameis Winston (NEW) They should use him at WR when Dart returns
- Jared Goff- QB5 at home and QB15-20 outside in the wind
- Matthew Stafford (+2) should be more prominent in the MVP discussion
- Brock Purdy (-5) had such a bad game on MNF, maybe there needs to be a QB controversy in SF
- Bo Nix (-2) Top 5 QB in the 4th quarter of games
- Justin Herbert (-2.) With the injuries to the O-line, it’s a wonder he is still healthy
- Daniel Jones (NEW) Top 10 level QB play in contract years
Top 30 at RB
- Christian McCaffrey- Volume makes him the undisputed RB1 in Fantasy Football
- De’Von Achane- MIA would be completely MIA without him
- Jahmyr Gibbs (+2) Volume increase for an explosive player is a nice thing
- Jonathon Taylor (-1) Chiefs defense is the only one to slow him down this season
- Bijan Robinson (-1) Last of the second-tier guys this season
- Kyren Williams- Leads the third tier of RBs that extends to RB9
- James Cook (+1) Only seeing a 20% negative regression in TDs this year
- Bucky Irving (-1) Will he be this good when he comes back from injury?
- Josh Jacobs- Should be ready for Turkey Day in Detroit
- Saquon Barkley- In a tier of his own at RB10
- Derrick Henry- In a tier of his own at RB11
- Travis Etienne (+1) didn’t lose volume to Tuten as many predicted
- Chase Brown (+1) Performing at an RB10 level since Flacco took over at QB
- Breece Hall (-2) QB play is causing him to drop
- Ashton Jeanty (+4. An Increase in passing-game volume is helping him rise in the rankings.
- Rico Dowdle (-1) QB inconsistency and volume split keep him around RB16
- Javonte Williams (-1) topped 20 PPR points 3 times in the first five games and none since
- David Montgomery- Volume drop could drop him out of the Top 25 soon
- Quinshon Judkins (+3). Injuries have been the only thing to slow him down as a rookie
- D’Andre Swift (-3)is losing more volume to Monangai
- Ken Walker (-1) Back-to-back solid games after failing to reach 10 PPR points in 5 straight
- RJ Harvey (+3) Will he get more volume coming back from the Bye week?
- Alvin Kamara- Injury will drop him off this chart soon
- Aaron Jones (-3) Ineffective QB play is dropping all the Vikings players in Fantasy rankings
- Rachad White (-1) Dropping to RB3 on his own team
- JK Dobbins (NEW) Uncertain volume coming back from Bye week
- Sean Tucker (-1) If Bucky doesn’t return, he might take over as RB1 for the Bucs
- TreVeon Henderson (-1) RB3 in total points since week 9
- Jaylen Warren (-1) Volume split with Gainwell is dropping him in the rankings
- Chuba Hubbard (-1) Just barely hanging on to the Top 30 with back class
Top 35 at WR
- Amon Ra St Brown (+1) Top 2 in a tier of their own right now
- Puka Nacua (-1) Having a second great WR caps his upside, but not his consistency
- Cee Dee Lamb- Only WR13 since returning from injury
- Ja’Marr Chase- Should get Burrow back at QB this week
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Has scored 37 more PPR points than any other WR this season
- Davante Adams- Great chemistry with Stafford at QB
- Rashee Rice (+1) WR4 since returning from his suspension
- Nico Collins (-1) Texans’ defense is so good the offense doesn’t need to post a big number
- Drake London- Falcons need him back from injury desperately
- George Pickens (+2). Only JSN has scored more fantasy points at WR than him since week 3
- Justin Jefferson- 2025 has proven that JJ is not QB-proof
- Deebo Samuel (+1) McLaurin returning might help
- Emeka Egbuka (-3) Will the return of Godwin make him more of a WR2-level WR?
- Stefon Diggs- Was last week a sign or just a fluke event?
- Chris Olave (+3) Volume is keeping him in the Top 20
- Garret Wilson (-1) Will he return this week?
- AJ Brown (+10) WR5 since he told Fantasy Football managers to bench him
- Tetairoa McMillan (-1). With better QB play, he could be a Top 10 WR
- Keenan Allen- Weekly volume changes make him a tough player to read right now
- Michael Pittman (-4). Great offenses can shut down the Colts and Pittman
- Jaylen Waddle (+3) WR8 in Fantasy Football since Tyreek got hurt
- Ladd McConkey- WR5 since week 5 in total points scored
- Brian Thomas Jr (-2) Will he return from injury this week?
- Courtland Sutton (+1) Only WR29 since week 7 when Franklin started being the first choice
- Tee Higgins (-2) Injury could drop him off this chart soon
- DeVonta Smith- Still the big play guy on an offense that prefers to run the ball
- Jordan Addison (-7) should drop out of the Top 35 unless they find an option at QB
- Terry McLaurin- Should return from injury this week
- DJ Moore (+6) Hard to predict his spike weeks
- DK Metcalf (-1) Only WR36 since week 6
- Marvin Harrison Jr (+3) Cardinals’ offense needs him back from injury soon
- Zay Flowers- Lamar at less than 100% is hurting his fantasy value
- Jameson Williams (-2) posted a ZERO last week after being a WR3 after their bye week
- Jakobi Meyers (NEW) Establishing chemistry with QB with Thomas out
- Wan Dale Robinson (NEW) WR8 in Fantasy Football since the Nabers injury
Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride-Posting RB5/WR5 numbers in Fantasy Football at TE is incredible.
- George Kittle- In a second tier at TE, all by himself
- Brock Bowers (+1) Three of the last four games in double digits
- Travis Kelce (-1). Only McBride has more receiving yards among TEs
- Tyler Warren- Only McBride and Ferguson have more receptions than the rookie
- Jake Ferguson (+1) Best value at the TE position in Fantasy Football this year by far
- Mark Andrews (+1) leads the fifth tier at this position
- Dallas Goedert (+1). Four of his last five games have been under 10 PPR points
- Oronde Gadsden (+2) TE2 in total points after taking over the starting TE position
- Dalton Kincaid- Injury could drop him off this chart soon
- David Njoku (-1) The rookie is getting more volume lately
- Hunter Henry (NEW) TE7 level production since Boutte got hurt
- Zach Ertz (NEW) Return of McLaurin could hurt his volume
- Juwan Johnson (-1) TE6 in total points since Shough took over at TE
- AJ Barner- Six of ten full games played over 10 PPR points this season
The Sports Affiliation 