by Dennis Michelsen 

@DMICmedia

https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com

Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, with the current season weighted more heavily each week. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week 13. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose if they have a very low-point week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The goal of the MVP Index was to combine these three outcomes into a single easy-to-understand number. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.  

MVP25 Index

The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season. 

Upside Index 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to handle outlier data to minimize its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighed more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances. 

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for the RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for the QB position. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge players and inform Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, what matters most is judging each QB against the others using the same point value. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

  1. Josh Allen- Hanging on to the top spot despite a drop in output  
  2. Jalen Hurts- His rushing upside could be a significant advantage in fantasy playoffs
  3. Patrick Mahomes (+2) Team is struggling, but Mahomes’ Magic is still hitting in fantasy points
  4. Jaxson Dart (-1) is one hit away from losing him for the fantasy playoffs 
  5. Dak Prescott (+2) One of the best values at QB this season 
  6. Lamar Jackson (-2) Nostradamus said three lousy Lamar games are a sign of the apocalypse 
  7. Baker Mayfield (-1) has all his WR weapons back in time for the fantasy playoffs
  8. Drake Maye- Might be Top 3 in real football right now
  9. Jared Goff (+1) All indoor games for the fantasy football playoffs
  10. Joe Burrow (NEW) Joe Cool is back, and my fantasy teams are thrilled
  11. Brock Purdy (+1) Do we have a QB controversy in the Bay Area? 
  12. Bo Nix (+1) Consistently inconsistent over four quarters 
  13. Matthew Stafford (-2) Solid floor with very nice ceiling 
  14. Daniel Jones (+1) has cooled off down the stretch 
  15. Jordan Love (NEW) On his best days, he is Top 5 worthy 

Top 30 at RB

  1. Christian McCaffrey- The Only player who has scored more than 300 fantasy points this year    
  2. De’Von Achane- Only one game under 16 PPR points all season  
  3.  Bijan Robinson (+2) Imagine his fantasy output without playing with a TD vulture 
  4. Jahmyr Gibbs (-1) Over 90 fewer touches than CMC but only about 70 PPR points behind
  5. Jonathon Taylor (-1), leading a Colts revival this season 
  6. Kyren Williams- The working man’s fantasy football player
  7. Josh Jacobs (+2) Injury concerns heading into the fantasy playoffs
  8. James Cook (-1). Still amazing they don’t use him more in the passing game
  9. Bucky Irving (-1) looked solid in his return from injury 
  10. Derrick Henry (+1) 8th season in a row with double-digit TDs
  11. Saquon Barkley (-1) More than 2 yards per carry, less than last season 
  12. Chase Brown (+1) Return of Burrow could reward his fantasy owners down the stretch 
  13. Breece Hall (+1) Offense has looked better with Taylor at QB 
  14. Ashton Jeanty (+1) 12 or more PPR points in 4 of the last five games
  15. Travis Etienne (-3) Lousy game last week after four straight solid games
  16. RJ Harvey (+6) still has not played more than 40% of offensive snaps in a game 
  17. D’Andre Swift (+3) Bears rushing game is for real 
  18. Rico Dowdle (-2) lost volume to Chuba last week 
  19. Javonte Williams (-2) hasn’t scored 20 or more PPR points since week 5 
  20. David Montgomery (-2) Forecasting his volume from week to week is difficult
  21. Quinshon Judkins (-2) Five games over 15 PPR points this season 
  22. Ken Walker (-1) Three games in a row of double-digit PPR points 
  23. Chuba Hubbard (+7) had a big game while on most managers’ benches last week
  24. Rachad White (+1) Return of Bucky has dropped his value
  25. Sean Tucker (+2) Return of Bucky has dropped his value, too
  26. TreVeon Henderson (+2) Return of Rhamondre has capped his upside 
  27. Jaylen Warren (+2). Five of his last seven games have been double-digit PPR points
  28. Aaron Jones (-4), the Vikings offense is a train wreck, which is insulting to train wrecks
  29. Kareem Hunt (NEW) has found the endzone in four of his last five games
  30. Kimani Vidal (NEW) Return of Hampton will end his Top 10 fantasy production 

Top 35 at WR

  1. Puka Nacua (+1). His turn back on top this week
  2. Amon Ra St Brown (-1) Injury concern heading into the closing weeks
  3. Cee Dee Lamb- Has scored double-digit points in every full game played this season  
  4. Ja’Marr Chase-WR4 in PPG since Jake Browning went to the bench   
  5. Rashee Rice (+2) WR2 production since his return from suspension 
  6. Davante Adams- Part of the best WR combo in football
  7. Nico Collins (+1) Four games over 20 PPR points but three under 10
  8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-3) apparently was wearing a stealth uniform last week
  9. Drake London- The Falcons have missed him in the lineup 
  10. George Pickens- Part of the second-best WR combo in football 
  11. AJ Brown (+6) WR2 production since telling fantasy managers to bench him 
  12. Justin Jefferson (-1) Proving that no WR is really QB-proof 
  13. Deebo Samuel (-1) Inconsistent keeps him from being higher rated
  14. Emeka Egbuka (-1) Starting to see performances decline with the return of veterans to the lineup
  15. Chris Olave- Living off significant volume 
  16. Garret Wilson- The Jets miss him, and so do his fantasy managers
  17. Stefon Diggs (-3) Back-to-back lousy games afterfive5 straight in double-digit PPR points
  18. Tetairoa McMillan- No longer the only option in that passing game
  19. Ladd McConkey (+3) Herbert’s injury is a huge concern because he was on a roll
  20. Terry McLaurin (+8) returned from injury in top form
  21. Jameson Williams (+12) Loss of the Sun God last week led to a surge in volume 
  22. Michael Pittman (-2). A solid CB can limit his production 
  23. Tee Higgins (+2) Bengals offense needs him back 
  24. Keenan Allen (-5) hasn’t seen a double-digit performance since week 7
  25. Jaylen Waddle (-4) has had five of his twelve games under 10 PPR points this season 
  26. Courtland Sutton (-2) Tough to forecast weekly volume in Broncos’ passing game
  27. DeVonta Smith (+1) Resurgence of AJB left him behind in volume 
  28. Brian Thomas Jr (-5) Losing volume to newcomer Meyers
  29. Jakobi Meyers (+5) is emerging as the best receiving option in the Jags offense
  30. Jordan Addison (-3) Lousy QB play makes him a risky fantasy start
  31. DJ Moore (-2) Hard to forecast volume in that Bears’ passing game
  32. DK Metcalf (-2. The Steelers’ offense has become stagnant
  33. Chris Godwin (NEW) Bucs get Evans back this week too
  34. Marvin Harrison Jr (-3) Double-digit PPR points in return to action
  35. Wan Dale Robinson- WR7 in total PPR fantasy points since week 6 

Top 15 at TE

  1. Trey McBride- The undisputed top TE this season in all formats 
  2. Brock Bowers (+1) has had four of his last five games with double-digit PPR points since his return 
  3. Travis Kelce (+1) Mr Swift is in his “Value TE Era” 
  4. George Kittle (-2) has double-digit PPR points in five of his last six games
  5. Tyler Warren- One of the few TEs who has every game over 6 points this season 
  6. Jake Ferguson- Only one bad game all season 
  7. Mark Andrews- A victim of bad QB play over the last 2 weeks
  8. Dallas Goedert- Has not had a double-digit PPR game since week 8
  9. Dalton Kincaid (+1) Injury concerns going forward 
  10. Darren Waller (NEW) returned with only a 6 PPR point game 
  11. Zach Ertz (+2) 5 or more targets in six of his last seven games
  12. David Njoku (-1) is losing too much volume to the rookie
  13. Oronde Gadsden (-4) After four straight solid games, he has seen three straight lousy games 
  14. Hunter Henry (-2) Back-to-back great games after failing to reach double digits for seven games
  15. TJ Hockenson (NEW) was the only bright spot last week for the pitiful Vikings offense