by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com
======================
Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. It’s important to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, with the current season weighted more heavily each week. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week 15.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose if they have a very low-point week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The goal of the MVP Index was to combine these three outcomes into a single easy-to-understand number. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.
MVP25 Index
The only difference between how we use the MVP25 Index and the regular MVP Index is that we use the MVP25 Index for the 25th percentile. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. I use full games because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This concept is an accurate gauge of each player’s value in Fantasy Football for the current season.
Upside Index
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to handle outlier data to minimize its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighed more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances.
Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football, which equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge players and inform Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, what matters most is judging each QB against the others using the same point value. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
Top 15 at QB
- Josh Allen- Without him, the Bills would be a 500-ball club
- Jalen Hurts (+2) In a tier of his own at QB2 right now
- Dak Prescott (-1) leads a tight pack from QB3 to QB9
- Jaxson Dart (-1) needs to learn to avoid contact if he wants to have a long career
- Patrick Mahomes (+2) Last time on this list for a while due to injury
- Baker Mayfield (+5) should have a strong finish with all his WRs back at the same time
- Jared Goff (+2) Indoor versus outdoor splits are greater than home/away splits
- Lamar Jackson (-3) An injured Lamar is still in the Top 10
- Matthew Stafford (+1). Lack of rushing points, but has been ultra consistent this season
- Joe Burrow (-4) threw in a clunker of a performance last week
- Brock Purdy (+1) Forget the QB controversy after all
- Drake Maye (-4) A better real NFL QB than Fantasy QB currently
- Jacoby Brissett (+1) QB2 since he took over in week 6
- Bo Nix (+1) Strength of Broncos defense means he doesn’t have to do too much most weeks
- Trevor Lawrence (NEW) showed last week just how great he can be, but he lacks consistency.
Top 30 at RB
- Christian McCaffrey- Season worthy of MVP award
- De’Von Achane- Shining bright despite playing on an awful offense
- Bijan Robinson- Could be in contention for QB1 if he didn’t lose so many rushing TDs to vulture
- Jahmyr Gibbs (-1) is having a down year by Gibbs’ standards, which is scary
- Jonathon Taylor (-1) Without Jones at QB, this offense could struggle
- Kyren Williams- Losing some volume to Corum, but finds the endzone quite often
- Josh Jacobs- Fighting through injuries and having another fantastic season
- James Cook (+1) could be Top 3 if the Bills knew how to use him in the passing game
- Bucky Irving (-1) Three strong RBs in TB caps his weekly upside
- Derrick Henry- Still a beast, but has only found the end zone in 7 of 14 games this year
- Saquon Barkley- Lacking the pop this season as foretold by the Curse of 370
- Chase Brown (+1) Over 15 PPR points in last seven games
- Travis Etienne (+1) Over 20 PPR points in 3 of last four starts
- RJ Harvey (-1) RB5 since Dobbins went down with an injury
- D’Andre Swift (+3) MVP Index of 100 this season
- Breece Hall (-1) Offense has been horribly inconsistent all season
- TreVeon Henderson (+10) Six games in double-digit PPR points in a row
- Rico Dowdle (-1) 8 of 10 games in double-digit PPR points since Chuba injury
- Javonte Williams (+1) has had 12 of 14 games in double-digit PPR points this season
- Ashton Jeanty (-4) This offense has been a dumpster fire, which is an insult to dumpster fires
- Omarion Hampton (-2). Not the same player since his injury
- David Montgomery (-1) lacks the volume to be rated higher
- Rachad White- Backup RB without a consistent role
- Quinshon Judkins (-2) Offensive line injuries have tanked his production
- Jaylen Warren (+3) Losing volume to Gainwell at RB
- Sean Tucker (-1) Goal line duties make him a deep flex play
- Ken Walker (-1) SEA RBs are worthless in Fantasy Football right now
- Tony Pollard (NEW) Back-to-back awesome games
- Kimani Vidal (+1) Still getting enough volume to make him flex worthy
- Chuba Hubbard (-7) Not getting enough volume to be reliable
Top 35 at WR
- Puka Nacua- The most consistent WR in Fantasy Football
- Amon Ra St Brown- Playing through injury and still in the top tier
- Cee Dee Lamb- Another WR playing well through injuries
- Ja’Marr Chase- Even had a solid week with Burrow way off
- Nico Collins (+1) Stroud is starting to put in solid games at QB
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-1) Volume has been his friend this season
- Rashee Rice- Loss of Mahomes will hurt his value for the rest of the season
- Davante Adams- Might miss a week with injury
- Drake London- The Falcons’ passing offense is not the same without him
- AJ Brown, WR4, since telling Fantasy Football Managers to bench him
- Mike Evans (NEW) Returned from injury in top form
- Tee Higgins (+4) Bengals offense looked bad without him
- Garret Wilson- Was quietly having a career year before getting hurt
- George Pickens (-3) Top 5 capable when his head is in the game
- Jameson Williams (+4) Since Campbell took over play calling, he is WR4
- Chris Olave (+1) Living off significant volume with a rookie QB
- Courtland Sutton (+7) Seven games over 15 PPR points, but three games of 5 or fewer
- Deebo Samuel (-3) Living up to his “Better in Best Ball” reputation
- Stefon Diggs (-5) Four games over 15 PPR points, but five games of 5 or fewer
- Terry McLaurin (+5) WR14 since returning from injury
- Justin Jefferson (-9) When a first-round pick is outside of the Top 20, that’s a league loser
- DK Metcalf (-1) lacks the consistency to be any higher
- Michael Pittman (-1) Colts’ offense could be challenged the rest of the season
- DJ Moore (+8) should be much more consistent in this style of offense
- Emeka Egbuka (-2) Slip sliding away since the return of veterans to the lineup
- Jaylen Waddle (-6) Bad QB play dooms him to a spot outside of the Top 20
- Zay Flowers (+6) Offense is not designed to have a Top 12 Fantasy WR
- DeVonta Smith (+1) has been sliding down the rankings since AJ Brown emerged
- Brian Thomas Jr (-1) Sophomore Slump in progress
- Tetairoa McMillan (-12) might be losing WR1 target share to Coker
- Jakobi Meyers (-1) Forms a nice 1-2 punch with BTJ
- Ladd McConkey (-6) should wake up this week against the Cowboys
- Wan Dale Robinson (NEW) Double-digit in PPR points since Skattebo injury
- Jordan Addison (-7). Only two double-digit PPR points performances in the last eight starts
- Keenan Allen (-4) Nine of the previous eleven games under 10 PPR points
Top 15 at TE
- Trey McBride-Ninth place in points among RB, WR, and TEs this season
- George Kittle- Six of the last seven games over 10 PPR points
- Travis Kelce- Lack of TDs has dropped him to a distant second in total points at TE
- Brock Bowers- TE3 in Points per Game this season
- Dallas Goedert (+1) Second at the position this season in games over 15 PPR points
- Darren Waller (+7) Junk time TDs looked good on Best Ball teams last week
- Jake Ferguson- Was TE1 in the first 7 weeks but TE20 since week 8
- Harold Fannin-Rookie could develop into one of the best TEs in the league
- Tyler Warren (-4) Falling fast without Indiana Jones at QB
- Mark Andrews (-1) Four games in a row under 8 PPR points
- Dalton Kincaid (-1) Double-digit PPR points in 5 of 7 full games played this season
- David Njoku (-1). Only three double-digit PPR points games in 12 tries this season
- Kyle Pitts (NEW) Four of five games over 14 PPR points when London is sidelined
- Dalton Schultz (NEW) Seven of his last 10 games in double-digit PPR points
- TJ Hockenson (NEW) Cracks the top 15 by default with injuries to others
The Sports Affiliation 