by Dennis Michelsen 

@DMICmedia

 https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com

Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. It’s important to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, with the current season weighted more heavily each week. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week 17. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose if they have a very low-point week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The goal of the MVP Index was to combine these three outcomes into a single easy-to-understand number. While the historical calculated median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for WR, RB, and TE gives us a score to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.  

MVP25 Index

The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, while in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season. 

Upside Index

 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to handle outlier data to minimize its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighed more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances. 

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to about 15 points for RB, WR, and TE, and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and W, the same value is used to evaluate players and inform Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, what matters most is judging each QB against the others using the same point value. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

1. Josh Allen- Didn’t justify ADP in the Fantasy Football playoffs
2. Brock Purdy (+5) The Fantasy Football Playoffs MVP
3. Jalen Hurts (-1) Another QB that didn’t live up to draft capital 
4. Joe Burrow (+1) Four of five solid games since returning from injury
5. Dak Prescott (+1) Great later round choice at QB this season
6. Drake Maye (+2) should be the REAL NFL MVP this season 
7. Matthew Stafford (-3) saved one of his worst games for the Fantasy Finals
8. Lamar Jackson (+1) Did this running QB get a visit from Father Time? 
9. Jared Goff (-6) cost his Fantasy Football believers lots of money in the final.s
10. Jaxson Dart (+1) The future looks bright for this rookie
11. Baker Mayfield (-1) was priced right in Fantasy Football this season 
12. Trevor Lawrence- QB2 in total points since his bye week
13. Bo Nix- Solid but not elite in either real or fake football
14. Jacoby Brissett- Could find a starting job next season
15. Caleb Williams (NEW) If your league gives bonus points for the 4^th Quarter, he is QB1

Top 30 at RB

1. Christian McCaffrey- Volume and durability are the keys to his rank
2. Bijan Robinson (+1) A mystery why the coach takes him out in key moments of a game
3. De’Von Achane (-1) Producing despite playing with an awful offense
4. Jahmyr Gibbs- Cost his Fantasy Managers money in the playoffs 
5. Jonathon Taylor- RB2 with Indiana Jones at QB, RB15 with someone else at QB 
6. Kyren Williams- Solid but never spectacular  
7. Derrick Henry (+2) produced an MVP effort for the Fantasy Finals
8. Chase Brown (+2) produced an MVP index of 133 (RB2 level) with Burrow at QB
9. James Cook (-2) A mystery why the coach takes him out with the  game on the line
10. RJ Harvey (+3) RB5 in total points since week 13
11. Josh Jacobs (-3) RB30 in total points since his injury week 10
12. Saquon Barkley (-1). Only one game over 25 PPR points this year versus seven last season
13. Travis Etienne (-1) lacks the big game upside but is solid every week
14. Omarion Hampton (+5) Best 8-game MVP of 112, often translates to year 2 performance 
15. D’Andre Swift (+1) Volume split caps his upside
16. Bucky Irving (-2) RB8 in total points before injury, RB24 since his return
17. Breece Hall- His talent is being wasted on an awful team 
18. Ashton Jeanty (-3) MVP of 137 in his best eight games, which often translates to year 2 performance
19. TreyVeon Henderson (-1) could be a solid 1-2 punch with Stevenson going forward
20. Javonte Williams (+1) Six games 15+ PPR points in firsteight8 games, only 2 in lasteight8 games
21. Rico Dowdle (-1) is Likely to be replaced next season in the starting RB role
22. Ken Walker- Inconsistent usage and performance all season 
23. Jaylen Warren- Splitting volume caps his upside
24. David Montgomery- Has fallen off the Fantasy Football radar 
25. Rhamondre Stevenson (NEW) 17 and 27 PPR points since injury to Henderson
26. Aaron Jones (NEW) RB24 in total points since returning from injury 
27. Kenneth Gainwell (+2) Passing game work helps his consistency most weeks
28. Tony Pollard (-1) could be a super sleeper next season if the O-Line is rebuilt
29. Zach Charbonnet (NEW) should take over as the lead RB all the time going forward
30. Kimani Vidal (NEW) Makes list by default due to injuries

Top 35 at WR

1. Puka Nacua- Over 13 PPR points in every full game played this season 
2. Ja’Marr Chase- MVP Index equal to Nacua since Burrow’s return to the lineup
3. Amon Ra St Brown- Three games under 10 PPR points this season, same as last 2 years combined
4. Cee Dee Lamb- Finishing up his 4^th straight season with an MVP of 100 or higher
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Best MVP Index at the position in 2025
6. Davante Adams (+2) was sorely missed in that lineup on MNF
7. Nico Collins (-1) picked the last two weeks of the Fantasy Playoffs for two of his worst games
8. AJ Brown (+1) hasn’t missed double digits since telling Fantasy Managers to bench him
9. Chris Olave (+4) is the volume king of Fantasy Football at WR this season
10. Mike Evans (+1) Very consistent but lacks the big game upside this year
11. George Pickens (+1) has earned a big payday, but will it be in Dallas? 
12. Drake London (-2) MVP Index of 122 (WR4 level) before his injury
13. Stefon Diggs (+4) has developed a nice chemistry with Drake Maye
14. Jameson Williams- Still a more trustworthy WR in Best Ball
15. Courtland Sutton- MVP Index of 75 (WR24 level) for this season
16. Tee Higgins- Had a higher MVP Index with Flacco at QB than Burrow
17. Zay Flowers (+2). Nine of his last ten games have been double-digit PPR point performances
18. DJ Moore- Four games over 20 PPR points in last nine starts, but five games with less than 5 points
19. Terry McLaurin (+7) MVP Index of 80 (WR22 level) since returning from injury
20. DK Metcalf (+2) moved up two spots because others had bad weeks or were removed due to injury
21. Justin Jefferson (+4) proved once and for all that there is no such thing as being QB-proof
22. Deebo Samuel (-1) MVP Index of 100 (WR11 Level) with Daniels at QB, 67 with other QBs
23. Michael Pittman (+1) MVP Index of 75 (WR25 level) with Jones at QB, 0 with other QBs
24. Wan Dale Robinson (+7), MVP Index of 92 WR14 level) sinceNabers’s injury
25. Chris Godwin (NEW) MVP Index of 100 (WR11 level) since returning to the lineup
26. DeVonta Smith (-1) might only be a smart draft pick at right ADP in Best Ball next season
27. Jaylen Waddle (-4) has been disappointing in this offense
28. Jauan Jennings (+7) MVP Index of 83 (WR18 level) since Purdy returned at QB
29. Tetairoa McMillan (-9) Besteight8 game MVP of 112 (WR7 level), often translates to year 2 
30. Jakobi Meyers- Target split is lowering the value of all 3 WRs in this offense
31. Alec Pierce (-2) should stay on the Best Ball late draft pick radar for next season 
32. Ladd McConkey (-4) Battling with BTJ for biggest year two disappointment 
33. Christian Watson (NEW) MVP Index of 70 (WR28 Level) since his return to the lineup
34. Emeka Egbuka (-2) MVP Index of 160 (WR1 level) before injury, 20 since
35. Brian Thomas Jr (-2) MVP Index of 50 before injury, zero since 

Top 15 at TE

1. Trey McBride- His MVP Index of 131 is tied for 5^th 5th-best at all positions.    
2. George Kittle- Hope you had Tonges for a sub for the Fantasy Championship gam.e  
3. Travis Kelce, an Older man, is still performing at a high level 
4. Harold Fannin (+2) Imagine how great he would be with better QB play? 
5. Dallas Goedert- Seven games with double-digit PPR points, but four games under 5
6. Coleston Loveland (NEW) Best eight games MVP of 87, often translates to year 2 level.l
7. Juwan Johnson (NEW) MVP Index of 70 (TE3 level) over his last 10 games
8. Kyle Pitts- Won over the trust of Fantasy Managers only to let them down in the Fantasy Final 
9. Darren Waller (-2) MVP Index of 50 (TE8 level) with Tua at QB, 0 with others 
10. Mark Andrews (+1) MVP Index below zero in his last 10 games
11. Tyler Warren (-2) MVP Index of 67 (TE4 level) with Jones at QB, -50 with others at QB
12. Jake Ferguson (-2) MVP Index of 90 (TE2 level) in first 10 games, 0 in last six games
13. Dalton Kincaid- MVP Index of 75 (TE3 level) in his best eight games this year
14. David Njoku (-2) Injuries to other TEs are the only thing keeping him in the Top 15
15. Hunter Henry- Red Zone target hawk makes him a solid late draft pick at TE