Welcome to the 2024 NFL Draft everyone! I think we all expected Day 1 to be exciting, but I don’t think any of us expected it to be as wild as it was. There were a lot of picks that made sense, and a lot of the positions that had top end depth got snatched up quickly. Anyway, let’s dive into some of the fantasy impact of the picks that were made last night.

Quarterbacks

As we start discussing the QB’s that were picked, let’s go ahead and start with the one at the top. As a Bears fan, I couldn’t be happier with the Caleb Williams pick. This kid has been groomed to be the first overall pick since he was in Pop Warner. Everyone you talk to says that he lives and breathes football, and he walks into one of the best situations that a first overall pick QB has had in a long time. I think that in Shane Waldron’s offense, he could be a top 12 QB this year.

As good as Caleb’s situation is, the QB that walks into the best situation is JJ McCarthy. Kevin O’Connell has a very QB friendly offensive system, and with weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson…it’s hard to argue against him as a potential QB1 in his first year. Unlike one of my colleagues, I won’t go so far as to crown him as an All-Pro as a rookie, but he could be in line for a very good year.

Drake Maye, unfortunately, is not as lucky. The Patriots seem to be in full rebuild mode, and they need a lot of pieces to field a competitive team. Maye will have a solid running game to help him out, but the rest of the offense needs a lot of help. I expect Maye to struggle as a rookie, through no fault of his own.

Bo Nix is an interesting case. This is 100% a Sean Payton pick. They had one of the worst QB rooms in the league before this pick, but now I believe they have a full blown competition. Bo Nix could very easily take the reigns and start as a rookie. But, even if he does, I am still staying away. The Broncos might have an even better running game than New England, and the weapons are “arguably” better than what the Patriots have, but I still have concerns about the overall offense there.

Then, of course, we have to discuss Michael Penix. This was the pick that turned the Draft on its head. It is hard to say that he is walking into a good situation when the team is paying $100 million guaranteed to another QB. Penix will almost certainly sit for at least 2 years before he gets a chance to start, and likely a third year based off Cousins’ contract numbers. The offensive weaponry is good, but the overall situation is very murky.

Finally, let’s talk about the Raiders. The Raiders needed a QB, but based off the way the Draft fell, they were unable to take one. This means that we are likely to see Gardner Minshew as a starter this year. As a gunslinger with Davante Adams, I think it is probable that Minshew has a very good year.

Brock Bowers

On the topic of the Raiders, even though they didn’t get their QB, they added another offensive weapon for their system. I think that this pick was a case of a team taking the absolute best player on their board regardless of need. Since the QB’s were off the board, they did the best thing they could do. I think this pick is a little odd since they just drafted Michael Mayer last year, but Bowers is a special breed. He is one of the best TE prospects I have ever seen, and the Raiders got a guy that is an absolute weapon on the field. I expect the team to employ a lot of 2 TE sets to let Bowers do what he does best, which is to put pressure on the LB core. With Minshew pulling the trigger, I think Bowers could easily be a top 12 TE in his rookie year. I wouldn’t reach for him, but as TE starts to get valued a little higher, he is a guy that one of your league mates might reach for, which will allow another TE fall to you.

Wide Receivers

It was expected that we were going to see a lot of wide receivers drafted in the first round, and the Draft did not disappoint. Starting at the top, let’s talk Marvin Harrison Jr. The Arizona Cardinals got one of the best prospects I have seen in years. He has been groomed to be an NFL number one receiver since he was a young child. He grew up around NFL teams, and it is almost all he has ever known. As a prospect he reminds me of a faster version of Larry Fitzgerald. In Dynasty, MHJ is easily the 1.01 of your rookie draft. In redraft, I think it is likely that he finishes as a WR2 or better.

Rome Odunze was my second highest rated receiver in this class, and a Bears fan, I think he is walking into a great situation. The Bears WR room already included DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. With the addition of Odunze, the offensive weaponry for Caleb Williams is one of the best three deep WR rooms in the NFL. The fact that the Bears already have 2 guys that are bonafide stars in the NFL means that Odunze has time to learn and grow into his new role in the NFL. For fantasy this means that I am probably staying away from him in redraft leagues, but in Dynasty, I think he falls into the middle third of the first round of your rookie drafts.

Malik Nabers is a guy that I am having trouble rating right now. He has the draft capital, and immediately becomes the alpha WR for the Giants. But, I have questions about the QB play in New York. Daniel Jones is likely not the answer, and the back-up is Drew Lock. Nabers will absolutely improve the numbers that the WR room produces, but in redraft I think he is a WR2 at best, simply based on the QB play. In Dynasty, on the other hand, I think Nabers is probably the second WR drafted.

Now, let’s talk about Xavier Worthy. While I am personally not the biggest fan of Worthy, he landed in arguably the best position of any WR drafted. The one thing that the Kansas City offense has missed since they traded Tyreek Hill has been someone that can take the top off of the defense. In this offseason, they have added 2 guys that have speed to burn in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. This offense could look very different this year even if Rashee Rice serves a sizable suspension. In redraft leagues, I think Worthy could end up as a solid WR2. In dynasty leagues, you could make a case for Worthy as the second receiver off the board. The Mahomes effect is important.

The next guy is Brian Thomas Jr. I think this is a case of a perfect fit for the situation. The Jaguars needed a big play receiver, and that is exactly what Thomas provides. He will fill the role vacated by Calvin Ridley perfectly. And, I think he might be able to outperform what Ridley did last year. In redraft leagues, I think Thomas has a floor of a WR2. In dynasty, I think he has one of the top 3 situations of any receiver drafted.

The last guy I want to talk about is Xavier Legette. I am worried that the Panthers are making the same mistake with this pick that they made with Johnathan Mingo last year. These two guys are very similar, and I think they will be competing for the same role in this offense. While I expect the Carolina offense to be better this year, for fantasy, I’m not sure that I want to invest resources in a guy who is competing to be the third receiver in a bottom half offense. For redraft leagues, I am not touching him until the very late rounds. In dynasty, I think he is a dice roll. He may be worth a first round pick simply due to the draft capital he was given, but I am personally holding off. I would be far more interested in him in the second round of rookie drafts.